424 Oak St · Cobden, IL 62920

$84,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · SingleFamily · 10 Days on market

Built 1969 2.00 ac lot ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.8/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This Mobile Home as additions equaling the original square footage. With great curb appeal and a spacious kitchen. The walk out basement would make for a perfect family room featuring and full Stone wall wood fireplace. Basement is also equipped with a lifetime warranted Heli-tech flooding solution. Tucked back off the road, this home offers two large storage buildings with the potential for electric in both and a Geothermal Heating system in the flooring of one. Give us a call today for a showing!

Key facts

• Acreage
• 2-car carport
• Partial basement

Tags

• PARTIAL BASEMENT
• 2-CAR CARPORT
• STORAGE BUILDINGS
• PEACEFUL RURAL SETTING
• COBDEN SCHOOL DISTRICT
• ACREAGE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (no enclosed garage spaces)
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Single Family Residence (single wide/mobile body type); Parkwood model/make; Built in 1969; Single-story/mobile layout noted with multiple levels including main, upper, lower, basement and additional level
• Construction: Shingle roof; Walk-out basement (foundation detail)
• Exterior features: Shed(s); Sloped lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (approx. 16 x 11.2)
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (bedroom sizes: approx. 14 x 13.8; 13.8 x 10; 12 x 11.5)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring in two bedrooms; Vinyl flooring in kitchen; Other/unknown flooring in living room and one bedroom
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating
• Interior features: One fireplace; Walk-out basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room (approx. 7.2 x 6.3)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $230 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#734 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Cobden SUD 17 (rural): math 29% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #462 of 919 in IL (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cobden Elem School (math 22% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,054 of 2,056 statewide, top 54%, 211 students, 0% FRL); Cobden Jr High School (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #460 of 665 statewide, top 72%, 93 students, 0% FRL); Cobden High School (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #256 of 693 statewide, top 44%, 161 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 55% district-wide (55 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 14 active listings in the ZIP; 10 units permitted in Union County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $587 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Union County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $84,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.42%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $259,200
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2540 N Old Hwy 51 Hwy	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,920 (+7%)	15mo	$241,000	$126	66
415 Oak St	0.12mi	3/2.0	2,042 (+13%)	11mo	$295,000	$144	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $957
• Equity at exit: $12,659

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.84×
• Total profit: $19,957
• Equity at exit: $7,341

Cash invested: $23,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62920

• Home prices YoY: -25.8%
• Active inventory: 14
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,130 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$445
• Tax from tax record: −$126 /mo · $1,514/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$237
• Net cashflow: $230

Break-even live

Break-even rent $838

Max offer price $84,900

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $278	-5% $254	+0% $230	+5% $206	+10% $182
Rent	-10% $141	-5% $185	+0% $230	+5% $275	+10% $319
Rate	-1.0pp $273	-0.5pp $252	base $230	+0.5pp $208	+1.0pp $186

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,225
• Closing costs: $2,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $84,900 Under Contract 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $84,900 Under Contract 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $84,900 Under Contract 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $84,900 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $84,900 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $84,900 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $84,900 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   remarks 693-char remark
9. 2026-06-13
   listed $84,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,514 · $126/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,721 · $143/mo
• Expected delta: +$207/yr (+$17/mo · 13.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,554
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,756
• − Property taxes: −$1,514
• − Insurance: −$1,091
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,084
• − Management: −$1,084
• − Depreciation: −$2,470
• Taxable income: $1,555
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$373
• After-tax cash flow: $2,387/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cobden SUD 17
• NCES district ID: 1710570
• Math proficiency: 29% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $42,993
• Composite: 29.93/100
• National rank: #11665
• State rank: #462 of 919 in IL

Livability — Cobden

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #734
• US rank: #14877

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cobden, IL
• Population (ZIP): 2,872

Population outlook (Union County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 16,606 people
• By 2030: 16,055 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 14,875 · -10.4%
• By 2050: 13,645 · -17.8%
• By 2075: 10,704 · -35.5%
• By 2100: 7,880 · -52.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 17% Hispanic / Latino 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 15%

Political lean MEDSL · Union

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.2) · D 27.8% · R 71.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.3pp toward R · 2008: -11.9pp · 2024: -43.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.2 2020: R+40.2 2016: R+39.8 2012: R+21.9 2008: R+11.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -49.03%
• Current HPI: 140.9879
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

-3.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $84,900 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-08-29 Sold (MLS) $75,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-08-29 Sold (MLS) $75,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-12-02 Listed $87,700 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-12-02 Listed $87,700 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-1.1%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,514 · +10.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.