2906 Powhattan Pkwy

Toledo, OH 43606

$194,900F

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,545 sqft · Built 1948 · SingleFamily · Pending · 38 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,078/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,022
• Tax + insurance: −$275
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$226
• Net cashflow: $-446/mo
• Annual: $-5,353/yr
• Cap rate: 3.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.81%
• DSCR: 0.56
• 1% rule: 0.55%
• Cash to close: $54,572

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $195k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-446 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $116k (40.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $108k (44.7% below list).
• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $108k (44.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#645 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, commute F.
• Toledo City (urban): math 15% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #634 of 656 in OH (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mckinley Stemm Academy (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #1,527 of 1,584 statewide, top 98%, 279 students, 0% FRL); Start High School (math 11% / reading 33%, grade F, #672 of 781 statewide, top 86%, 1,242 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools average 25% FRL vs 72% district-wide (47 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 95 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 415 units permitted in Lucas County in 2024 (122 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lucas County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $140k; 39% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 3.5% vs local median 7.7% in Toledo — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 45% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.