811 Willard St

Toledo, OH 43605

$19,500D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 990 sqft · Built 1905 · SingleFamily · Pending · 2 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,038/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$102
• Tax + insurance: −$30
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$218
• Net cashflow: $688/mo
• Annual: $8,255/yr
• Cap rate: 48.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 151.20%
• DSCR: 7.73
• 1% rule: 5.32%
• Cash to close: $5,460

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $20k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $688 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $20k).
• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $135 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $585 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#645 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, commute F.
• Toledo City (urban): math 15% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #634 of 656 in OH (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: East Broadway Elementary School (math 4% / reading 11%, grade F, #1,518 of 1,584 statewide, top 96%, 411 students, 0% FRL); Waite High School (math 12% / reading 24%, grade F, #687 of 781 statewide, top 88%, 997 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 72% district-wide (72 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1905 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 118 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 415 units permitted in Lucas County in 2024 (122 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lucas County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.4% rent growth), your $5k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 48.6% vs local median 7.7% in Toledo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($39k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1905 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.