811 Willard St · Toledo, OH 43605

$19,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 990 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1905 1,500 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great Investment Opportunity -- Priced to Sell!! 3 bedrooms/ 1 bath. Newer Water Heater (2022), Furnace (2000), Central Air (2011). Main floor bedroom & bath, with 2 bedrooms upstairs. Plenty of room to increase the value on this property with your improvements! Selling "AS-IS".

Key facts

• 1,500 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1905

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport; On-street parking; 1-car carport
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Public water; Sanitary sewer
• Home design: Single family house; One and one-half levels (2 stories total); Not attached to other structures; No common walls
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Combination foundation
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Side porch; Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Gas oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedroom 2 (Upper); Bedroom 3 (Upper)
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Walk-in closet(s); Basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry in basement; Water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $20k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $688 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $20k).
• Cap rate 48.6% vs local median 7.7% in Toledo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#645 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, commute F.
• Toledo City (urban): math 15% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #634 of 656 in OH (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: East Broadway Elementary School (math 4% / reading 11%, grade F, #1,518 of 1,584 statewide, top 96%, 411 students, 0% FRL); Waite High School (math 12% / reading 24%, grade F, #687 of 781 statewide, top 88%, 997 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 72% district-wide (72 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 119 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 415 units permitted in Lucas County in 2024 (122 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($39k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $135 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $585 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lucas County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.4% rent growth), your $5k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1905 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $19,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1905 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 48.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 151.20%
• DSCR: 7.73
• GRM: 1.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $46,530
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1110 Camden St	0.07mi	3/1.0	982 (-1%)	6mo	$67,000	$68	91
1012 Idaho St	0.17mi	3/1.0	1,041 (+5%)	0mo	$84,900	$82	83
1133 Nevada St	0.28mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,044 (+6%)	4mo	$36,000	$34	70
921 Berry St	0.30mi	4/1.0 (+1)	924 (-7%)	4mo	$37,000	$40	67
616 Spring Grove Ave	0.37mi	3/1.0	920 (-7%)	6mo	$36,000	$39	66
328 White St	0.59mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,000 (+1%)	1mo	$39,900	$40	65
622 Church St	0.46mi	2/1.0 (-1)	948 (-4%)	3mo	$25,000	$26	64
463 Howland Ave	0.61mi	3/1.0	1,027 (+4%)	4mo	$65,000	$63	62
635 Milton St	0.47mi	3/1.0	1,096 (+11%)	4mo	$36,500	$33	57
1723 Liberty St	0.63mi	2/1.0 (-1)	954 (-4%)	5mo	$68,999	$72	55
729 Utah St	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,116 (+13%)	1mo	$60,000	$54	43
319 White St	0.62mi	2/1.0 (-1)	848 (-14%)	4mo	$40,000	$47	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.37% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 8.91×
• Total profit: $43,203
• Equity at exit: $2,908

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 20.23×
• Total profit: $105,010
• Equity at exit: $1,686

Cash invested: $5,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 43605

• Home prices YoY: -25.6%
• Rents YoY: 5.4%
• Active inventory: 119
• Price-to-rent: 1.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,038 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$102
• Tax from tax record: −$22 /mo · $260/yr
• Insurance: −$8
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$218
• Net cashflow: $688

Break-even live

Break-even rent $167

Max offer price $19,500

Occupancy floor 29%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $699	-5% $693	+0% $688	+5% $682	+10% $677
Rent	-10% $606	-5% $647	+0% $688	+5% $729	+10% $770
Rate	-1.0pp $698	-0.5pp $693	base $688	+0.5pp $683	+1.0pp $678

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $4,875
• Closing costs: $585
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
724 Plymouth St Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	819	$750	$0.92	45d	1	0.10mi
948 White St Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1024	$1,135	$1.11	15d	1	0.12mi
1123 Nevada St Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	792	$900	$1.14	15d	1	0.29mi
557 Valleywood Dr Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	848	$1,100	$1.30	45d	1	0.40mi
946 Butler St Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	944	$650	$0.69	45d	1	0.51mi
1205 Liberty St Unit NA Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	864	$1,195	$1.38	45d	1	0.52mi
571 Howland Ave Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	874	$875	$1.00	45d	1	0.52mi
508 Howland Ave Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	840	$1,000	$1.19	45d	1	0.55mi
653 Oswald St Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	920	$800	$0.87	45d	1	0.63mi
834 Oak St Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1064	$900	$0.85	45d	1	0.65mi
950 Oak St Unit 1 Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	725	$700	$0.97	45d	1	0.69mi
732 Coyne Ave Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	968	$1,145	$1.18	15d	1	0.81mi
722 Coyne Ave Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	15d	1	0.81mi
223 Valleywood Dr Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	1098	$1,099	$1.00	24d	1	0.82mi
2074 Starr Ave Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1115	$1,025	$0.92	24d	1	0.85mi
470 2nd St Unit 1 Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	950	$799	$0.84	45d	1	0.89mi
1537 Carlyle St Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	800	$800	$1.00	24d	1	0.94mi
1537 Remington St Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1064	$1,095	$1.03	45d	1	1.04mi
1305 Mott Ave Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1080	$1,000	$0.93	45d	1	1.07mi
221 Licking St Unit 2 Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1048	$1,099	$1.05	24d	1	1.09mi
251 Graham St Apt A Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	625	$850	$1.36	45d	1	1.16mi
625 Riverside Dr Toledo, OH	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	860	$1,767	$2.05	15d	37	1.23mi
128 Carbon St Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1113	$1,200	$1.08	24d	1	1.23mi
1103 S Wheeling St Oregon, OH	2.0	1.0	825	$1,049	$1.27	45d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-14
   status $19,500 Pending 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $19,500 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   remarks 281-char remark
4. 2026-06-09
   listed $19,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $260 · $22/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $282 · $23/mo
• Expected delta: +$22/yr (+$2/mo · 8.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,455
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,092
• − Property taxes: −$260
• − Insurance: −$98
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$996
• − Management: −$996
• − Depreciation: −$567
• Taxable income: $8,446
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,027
• After-tax cash flow: $6,228/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Toledo City
• NCES district ID: 3904490
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $32,137
• Composite: 15.76/100
• National rank: #9276
• State rank: #634 of 656 in OH

Livability — Toledo

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #645
• US rank: #11442

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Toledo, OH
• County: Lucas County · 380,724 people
• City population: 280,811
• Metro: Toledo, OH
• Population (ZIP): 24,441
• Household income: $39,118
• Rent vs Own: 51.9% rent · 48.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1257.0

Population outlook (Lucas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,751 people
• By 2030: 410,187 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 384,019 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 355,125 · -15.6%
• By 2075: 291,683 · -30.7%
• By 2100: 233,670 · -44.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 21% Black 14% Two or more races 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lucas

• 2024 margin: D (+12.6) · D 55.8% · R 43.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.9pp toward R · 2008: 31.4pp · 2024: 12.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.6 2020: D+16.8 2016: D+17.4 2012: D+30.4 2008: D+31.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -47.85%
• Current HPI: 138.6894
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.37%
• Metro: Toledo, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-07 Listed $19,500 NORIS

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $260 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.