89 Hamlet Dr

Commack, NY 11725

$1,365,000D+

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,900 sqft · Built 1996 · SingleFamily · Pending · 102 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $12,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,158
• Tax + insurance: −$2,427
• HOA: −$504
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,520
• Net cashflow: $-609/mo
• Annual: $-7,313/yr
• Cap rate: 5.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.91%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $382,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $1.36M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-609 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.26M (7.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.20M (12.1% below list).
• It's been on market 102 days — a 9% lower offer ($1.24M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.20M (12.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $9k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $41k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#319 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities D, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Commack Union Free School District (suburban): math 70% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #61 of 590 in NY (top 10%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 5% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Rolling Hills School (229 students, 20% FRL); Commack Middle School (math 54% / reading 67%, grade B+, #153 of 729 statewide, top 21%, 1,322 students, 16% FRL); Commack High School (math 98% / reading 97%, grade A+, #19 of 1,100 statewide, top 4%, 1,861 students, 15% FRL).
• Market conditions: 102 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 6 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $670k; list at $1.36M implies a 104% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 77% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.3% in Commack — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 102 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.