804 Main St

Ashby, MA 01431

$187,970B-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,455 sqft · Built 1790 · SingleFamily · Active · 81 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,335/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$986
• Tax + insurance: −$296
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$700
• Net cashflow: $1,353/mo
• Annual: $16,233/yr
• Cap rate: 14.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.84%
• DSCR: 2.37
• 1% rule: 1.77%
• Cash to close: $52,632

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $188k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $188k).
• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $177k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• North Middlesex (rural): math 36% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #150 of 302 in MA (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: built in 1790 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 3,670 units permitted in Middlesex County in 2024 (2,611 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Middlesex County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $110k; list at $188k implies a 71% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 23% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1790 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.