804 Main St · Ashby, MA 01431

$187,970

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,455 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 81 Days on market

Built 1790 0.30 ac lot $77/sqft · 63% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Attention investors and contractors! Prime value-add opportunity with strong upside potential. This property is perfect for a fix-and-flip, rental investment, or renovation project to build serious equity. With the right vision and updates, this property can be transformed into a high-performing asset. Conveniently located near local amenities, shopping, schools, and major routes, making it attractive for future tenants or resale. Opportunities like this don’t last in today’s market—bring your ideas and unlock the full potential of this investor-friendly property.

Key facts

• Fix-and-flip
• Rental investment
• Local amenities

Tags

• VALUE-ADD OPPORTUNITY
• FIX-AND-FLIP
• RENTAL INVESTMENT
• RENOVATION PROJECT
• HIGH-PERFORMING ASSET
• LOCAL AMENITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $188k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $188k).
• Recommended offer: $177k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• North Middlesex (rural): math 36% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #150 of 302 in MA (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 3,670 units permitted in Middlesex County in 2024 (2,611 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Middlesex County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $110k; list at $188k implies a 71% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1790 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 23% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,691 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1790 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.77% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.84%
• DSCR: 2.37
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $505,597
• List price: $187,970
• Delta: -62.82%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
303 New Ipswich Rd	0.56mi	4/2.5	2,318 (-6%)	11mo	$650,000	$280	53
414 Piper Rd	0.74mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,208 (-10%)	13mo	$605,000	$274	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.06×
• Total profit: $55,738
• Equity at exit: $28,027

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.03×
• Total profit: $159,639
• Equity at exit: $16,252

Cash invested: $52,632 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 20 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Massachusetts: 20 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Cambridge / Boston historically rent-controlled (preempted 1994 but consideration ongoing); strong tenant protections; court backlogs.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 01431

• Home prices YoY: -8.4%
• Active inventory: 22
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,335 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$986
• Tax from tax record: −$218 /mo · $2,617/yr
• Insurance: −$78
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$700
• Net cashflow: $1,353

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,623

Max offer price $187,970

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,992
• Closing costs: $5,639
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $187,970 Active 81 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $187,970 Active 80 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $187,970 Active 79 DOM
4. 2026-04-28
   status Reactivated 588-char remark

   Show marketing remark (588 chars)

   Attention investors and contractors! Prime value-add opportunity with strong upside potential. This property is perfect for a fix-and-flip, rental investment, or renovation project to build serious equity. With the right vision and updates, this property can be transformed into a high-performing asset. Conveniently located near local amenities, shopping, schools, and major routes, making it attractive for future tenants or resale. Opportunities like this don’t last in today’s market—bring your ideas and unlock the full potential of this investor-friendly property.

5. 2026-04-27
   historical 588-char remark

   Show marketing remark (588 chars)

   Attention investors and contractors! Prime value-add opportunity with strong upside potential. This property is perfect for a fix-and-flip, rental investment, or renovation project to build serious equity. With the right vision and updates, this property can be transformed into a high-performing asset. Conveniently located near local amenities, shopping, schools, and major routes, making it attractive for future tenants or resale. Opportunities like this don’t last in today’s market—bring your ideas and unlock the full potential of this investor-friendly property.

6. 2026-04-02
   price $187,970 588-char remark

   Show marketing remark (588 chars)

   Attention investors and contractors! Prime value-add opportunity with strong upside potential. This property is perfect for a fix-and-flip, rental investment, or renovation project to build serious equity. With the right vision and updates, this property can be transformed into a high-performing asset. Conveniently located near local amenities, shopping, schools, and major routes, making it attractive for future tenants or resale. Opportunities like this don’t last in today’s market—bring your ideas and unlock the full potential of this investor-friendly property.

7. 2026-03-11
   listed $199,970 New 588-char remark

   Show marketing remark (588 chars)

   Attention investors and contractors! Prime value-add opportunity with strong upside potential. This property is perfect for a fix-and-flip, rental investment, or renovation project to build serious equity. With the right vision and updates, this property can be transformed into a high-performing asset. Conveniently located near local amenities, shopping, schools, and major routes, making it attractive for future tenants or resale. Opportunities like this don’t last in today’s market—bring your ideas and unlock the full potential of this investor-friendly property.

8. 2007-11-21
   soldstatus $110,000 Sold 388-char remark

   Show marketing remark (388 chars)

   Offered as is and where is, former parsonage has many possibilities. Potential for 2 bedroom with 1.5 bath apartment w/zoning board approval. Needs lots of work. Lender owned property, all offers to be submitted with pre-qualification letter from lender. Appraisal and credit report no cost to buyer if finaced thru lender. Please contact agent for seller addendum prior to writing offer.

9. 2007-10-23
   historical 388-char remark

   Show marketing remark (388 chars)

   Offered as is and where is, former parsonage has many possibilities. Potential for 2 bedroom with 1.5 bath apartment w/zoning board approval. Needs lots of work. Lender owned property, all offers to be submitted with pre-qualification letter from lender. Appraisal and credit report no cost to buyer if finaced thru lender. Please contact agent for seller addendum prior to writing offer.

10. 2007-10-02
    price $124,900 388-char remark

    Show marketing remark (388 chars)

    Offered as is and where is, former parsonage has many possibilities. Potential for 2 bedroom with 1.5 bath apartment w/zoning board approval. Needs lots of work. Lender owned property, all offers to be submitted with pre-qualification letter from lender. Appraisal and credit report no cost to buyer if finaced thru lender. Please contact agent for seller addendum prior to writing offer.

11. 2007-09-12
    price $129,900 388-char remark

    Show marketing remark (388 chars)

    Offered as is and where is, former parsonage has many possibilities. Potential for 2 bedroom with 1.5 bath apartment w/zoning board approval. Needs lots of work. Lender owned property, all offers to be submitted with pre-qualification letter from lender. Appraisal and credit report no cost to buyer if finaced thru lender. Please contact agent for seller addendum prior to writing offer.

12. 2007-08-22
    price $133,900 388-char remark

    Show marketing remark (388 chars)

    Offered as is and where is, former parsonage has many possibilities. Potential for 2 bedroom with 1.5 bath apartment w/zoning board approval. Needs lots of work. Lender owned property, all offers to be submitted with pre-qualification letter from lender. Appraisal and credit report no cost to buyer if finaced thru lender. Please contact agent for seller addendum prior to writing offer.

13. 2007-08-01
    price $137,900 388-char remark

    Show marketing remark (388 chars)

    Offered as is and where is, former parsonage has many possibilities. Potential for 2 bedroom with 1.5 bath apartment w/zoning board approval. Needs lots of work. Lender owned property, all offers to be submitted with pre-qualification letter from lender. Appraisal and credit report no cost to buyer if finaced thru lender. Please contact agent for seller addendum prior to writing offer.

14. 2007-07-11
    listed $141,900 388-char remark

    Show marketing remark (388 chars)

    Offered as is and where is, former parsonage has many possibilities. Potential for 2 bedroom with 1.5 bath apartment w/zoning board approval. Needs lots of work. Lender owned property, all offers to be submitted with pre-qualification letter from lender. Appraisal and credit report no cost to buyer if finaced thru lender. Please contact agent for seller addendum prior to writing offer.

15. 2006-01-17
    soldstatus $145,900
16. 2006-01-17
    soldstatus $145,900
17. 2006-01-17
    soldstatus $145,900
18. 2005-12-30
    historical
19. 2005-11-29
    listed $145,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,617 · $218/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,617 · $218/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 23% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,024
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,529
• − Property taxes: −$2,617
• − Insurance: −$940
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,202
• − Management: −$3,202
• − Depreciation: −$5,468
• Taxable income: $14,066
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,376
• After-tax cash flow: $12,857/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Middlesex
• NCES district ID: 2508790
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $82,624
• Composite: 41.69/100
• National rank: #3413
• State rank: #150 of 302 in MA

Livability — Ashby

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,188

Population outlook (Middlesex County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,740,269 people
• By 2030: 1,817,187 · +4.4%
• By 2040: 1,963,195 · +12.8%
• By 2050: 2,087,461 · +20.0%
• By 2075: 2,344,036 · +34.7%
• By 2100: 2,383,776 · +37.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Slovak 4% Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Middlesex

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.5) · D 68.5% · R 29.0% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.3pp toward D · 2008: 30.1pp · 2024: 39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.5 2020: D+45.2 2016: D+38.1 2012: D+26.9 2008: D+30.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -25.45%
• Current HPI: 276.7752
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.28%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	3	$17B
▸Insurance	2	$84B
▸Retail	2	$76B
▸Life Sciences	1	$43B
▸Energy Technology	1	$31B
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$18B

Price history

+28.8% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Relisted — MLS PIN
• 2026-04-27 Listing Removed — MLS PIN
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $187,970 MLS PIN
• 2026-03-11 Listed $199,970 MLS PIN
• 2007-11-21 Sold (MLS) $110,000 MLS PIN
• 2007-10-23 Listing Removed — MLS PIN
• 2007-10-02 Price Changed $124,900 MLS PIN
• 2007-09-12 Price Changed $129,900 MLS PIN
• 2007-08-22 Price Changed $133,900 MLS PIN
• 2007-08-01 Price Changed $137,900 MLS PIN
• 2007-07-11 Listed $141,900 MLS PIN
• 2006-01-17 Sold (Public Records) $145,900 Public Records
• 2006-01-17 Sold (Public Records) $145,900 Public Records
• 2006-01-17 Sold (MLS) $145,900 MLS PIN
• 2005-12-30 Listing Removed — MLS PIN
• 2005-11-29 Listed $145,900 MLS PIN

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,617 · +6.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.