13979 Katlin Rd

Cut and Shoot, TX 77306

$238,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,508 sqft · Built 2021 · SingleFamily · Active · 151 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,096/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,248
• Tax + insurance: −$836
• HOA: −$25
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $-453/mo
• Annual: $-5,435/yr
• Cap rate: 6.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.48%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $66,640

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $238k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-453 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $158k (33.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (11.9% below list).
• It's been on market 151 days — a 12% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $158k (33.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,326 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: 414 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.8% in Cut and Shoot — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 151 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?