13979 Katlin Rd · Cut and Shoot, TX 77306

$238,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,508 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 151 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition 8,851 sqft lot $158/sqft · 18% below area Est $292k · 18% under $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lovely 2021 masterpiece home, perfectly tucked away on a quiet cul-de-sac with no back neighbors offering the serenity and privacy you deserve. This inviting home boasts 3 spacious bedrooms, 2 full baths, and a 2-car garage, all wrapped in modern elegance. The open-concept kitchen is the heart of the home complete gleaming granite countertops, a center island, and a breakfast bar perfect for gathering and creating memories. The primary suite is your personal retreat, featuring double sinks, a luxurious garden tub, and a walk-in shower for the ultimate spa-like experience. Natural light pours through every room, illuminating spacious secondary bedrooms and an inviting layout ideal for both relaxation and entertainment

Key facts

• 8,851 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2021

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $238k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-453 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $158k (33.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (11.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $158k (33.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.8% in Cut and Shoot — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,326 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 414 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 151 days — a 12% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,988 (33.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 151 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.48%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $291,832
• List price: $238,000
• Delta: -18.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14148 Kamilia Rd	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,421 (-6%)	2mo	$256,000	$180	82
3579 Korina Way	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,604 (+6%)	0mo	$235,000	$147	79
14749 S Ascot Bend Cir	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,560 (+3%)	3mo	$249,967	$160	69
2702 Pheasant Hill Ct	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,560 (+3%)	3mo	$238,386	$153	69
3564 Korina Way	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,345 (-11%)	2mo	$215,000	$160	69
14744 S Ascot Bend Cir	0.48mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,535 (+2%)	3mo	$241,065	$157	67
14716 South Ascot Bend Cir	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,418 (-6%)	2mo	$230,990	$163	64
14700 South Ascot Bend Cir	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,418 (-6%)	1mo	$233,990	$165	63
14720 South Ascot Bend Cir	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,409 (-7%)	2mo	$233,990	$166	63
2627 Rain Quail Ct	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,409 (-7%)	1mo	$233,990	$166	62
14884 North Ascot Bend Cir	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,409 (-7%)	6mo	$229,990	$163	57
855 Waukegan Rd	0.42mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,691 (+12%)	2mo	$279,990	$166	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-67,097
• Equity at exit: $35,487

10-year hold

• IRR: -31.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.41×
• Total profit: $-94,285
• Equity at exit: $20,578

Cash invested: $66,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77306

• Home prices YoY: -4.1%
• Active inventory: 414
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,096 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,248
• Tax from tax record: −$310 /mo · $3,723/yr
• Insurance: −$99
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $-453

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,670

Max offer price $157,988

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-318	-5% $-386	+0% $-453	+5% $-520	+10% $-588
Rent	-10% $-619	-5% $-536	+0% $-453	+5% $-370	+10% $-287
Rate	-1.0pp $-333	-0.5pp $-392	base $-453	+0.5pp $-515	+1.0pp $-577

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,500
• Closing costs: $7,140
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15141 Meadow Gln S Conroe, TX	3.0	3.0	1864	$1,961	$1.05	22d	1	0.31mi
14990 N Ascot Bend Cir Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1607	$2,400	$1.49	44d	1	0.47mi
14918 N Ascot Bend Cir Conroe, TX	4.0	2.5	1979	$1,955	$0.99	44d	1	0.52mi
343 Parkin Ct Cut and Shoot, TX	3.0	2.0	2014	$1,985	$0.99	44d	1	1.33mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $238,000 Active 151 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $238,000 Active 150 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $238,000 Active 149 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $238,000 Active 148 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $238,000 Active 146 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $238,000 Active 142 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $238,000 Active 141 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $238,000 Active 140 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $238,000 Active 137 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $238,000 Active 136 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $238,000 Active 135 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $238,000 Active 134 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $238,000 Active 133 DOM
14. 2026-01-18
    listed $238,000 Active 726-char remark

    Show marketing remark (726 chars)

    Lovely 2021 masterpiece home, perfectly tucked away on a quiet cul-de-sac with no back neighbors offering the serenity and privacy you deserve. This inviting home boasts 3 spacious bedrooms, 2 full baths, and a 2-car garage, all wrapped in modern elegance. The open-concept kitchen is the heart of the home complete gleaming granite countertops, a center island, and a breakfast bar perfect for gathering and creating memories. The primary suite is your personal retreat, featuring double sinks, a luxurious garden tub, and a walk-in shower for the ultimate spa-like experience. Natural light pours through every room, illuminating spacious secondary bedrooms and an inviting layout ideal for both relaxation and entertainment

15. 2021-12-29
    soldstatus Sold
16. 2021-12-01
    status Pending
17. 2021-11-29
    price $238,653
18. 2021-11-19
    listed $236,653 Active
19. 2021-06-30
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,723 · $310/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,355 · $363/mo
• Expected delta: +$633/yr (+$53/mo · 17.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,156
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,332
• − Property taxes: −$3,723
• − Insurance: −$6,308
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,012
• − Management: −$2,012
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$6,924
• Taxable loss: −$9,456
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,269
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,166/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2021 single-family home is in good condition with modern amenities and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for minor updates to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and make it more inviting.
• Resale Replace outdated appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal and value.
• Both Install smart home features — Smart home features can improve convenience and add value for both buyers and renters.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and attract more potential buyers or renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and make it more inviting. ↑
• Resale Replace outdated appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal and value. ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Smart home features can improve convenience and add value for both buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and attract more potential buyers or renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cut and Shoot

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1326
• US rank: #22835

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,086
• Household income: $76,257
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 231.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 41% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 51%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 45% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -13.02%
• Current HPI: 306.3801
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-18 Listed $238,000 HARMLS
• 2021-12-29 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-12-01 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-11-29 Price Changed $238,653 HARMLS
• 2021-11-19 Listed $236,653 HARMLS
• 2021-06-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+77.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,723 · -6.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.