1003 State Highway 156

Novelty, MO 63460

$69,000B

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,072 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Pending · 158 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $973/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$362
• Tax + insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$204
• Net cashflow: $292/mo
• Annual: $3,502/yr
• Cap rate: 11.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.12%
• DSCR: 1.81
• 1% rule: 1.41%
• Cash to close: $19,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $69k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $292 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($973 rent vs $69k).
• It's been on market 158 days — a 12% lower offer ($61k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $61k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($477 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (6.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#849 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: housing D, crime F, amenities F.
• Knox County R-I (rural): math 34% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #154 of 324 in MO (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Knox Co. Elem. (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #611 of 1,115 statewide, top 59%, 249 students, 57% FRL); Knox Co. High (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #218 of 521 statewide, top 45%, 242 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 44% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in Knox County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Knox County population projected at -32% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (6.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 158 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: Kitchen cabinets — Severe wear
• Major: Kitchen flooring — Severe wear
• Major: Bathroom fixtures — Severe wear
• Major: Bathroom flooring — Severe wear
• Major: Roof — Visible damage
• Major: Exterior siding — Peeling paint