1003 State Highway 156 · Novelty, MO 63460

$69,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,072 sqft · SingleFamily · 158 Days on market

Poor condition 0.67 ac lot $64/sqft · at area comps Est $66k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.1/10.0
• Appreciation +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +5.6/15.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy peaceful country-style living in this charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath home located along Highway 156 near Novelty, MO, conveniently close to LaPlata and Kirksville. The property features a full, dry basement in very good condition, offering excellent storage or future living space. An attached two-car garage adds convenience, while the very spacious yard provides plenty of room for entertaining, relaxing, or enjoying the outdoors. Situated in a quiet, serene area, this home offers the perfect balance of rural tranquility and easy access to nearby towns. Call Mark Hunolt at 660.341.0802 for your personal showing today. #lookwithLEGACYinmind

Key facts

• Spacious yard
• Full dry basement
• Quiet serene area

Tags

• FULL DRY BASEMENT
• ATTACHED TWO CAR GARAGE
• SPACIOUS YARD
• QUIET SERENE AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $69k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $292 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($973 rent vs $69k).
• Recommended offer: $61k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#849 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: housing D, schools D-, crime F.
• Knox County R-I (rural): math 34% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #154 of 324 in MO (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in Knox County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($477 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (6.8% local appreciation)).
• Knox County population projected at -32% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 158 days — a 12% lower offer ($61k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $60,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 158 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.12%
• DSCR: 1.81
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $66,266
• List price: $69,000
• Delta: 4.13%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

6.81% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.17×
• Total profit: $41,885
• Equity at exit: $46,955

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.59×
• Total profit: $107,962
• Equity at exit: $88,426

Cash invested: $19,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63460

• Home prices YoY: 5.3%
• Active inventory: 5
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $973 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$362
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$86 /mo · $1,035/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$204
• Net cashflow: $292

Break-even live

Break-even rent $604

Max offer price $69,000

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $339	-5% $316	+0% $292	+5% $268	+10% $244
Rent	-10% $215	-5% $253	+0% $292	+5% $330	+10% $369
Rate	-1.0pp $327	-0.5pp $309	base $292	+0.5pp $274	+1.0pp $256

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,250
• Closing costs: $2,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2025-12-22
   listed $69,000 Active 648-char remark

   Show marketing remark (648 chars)

   Enjoy peaceful country-style living in this charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath home located along Highway 156 near Novelty, MO, conveniently close to LaPlata and Kirksville. The property features a full, dry basement in very good condition, offering excellent storage or future living space. An attached two-car garage adds convenience, while the very spacious yard provides plenty of room for entertaining, relaxing, or enjoying the outdoors. Situated in a quiet, serene area, this home offers the perfect balance of rural tranquility and easy access to nearby towns. Call Mark Hunolt at 660.341.0802 for your personal showing today. #lookwithLEGACYinmind

2. 2021-08-19
   soldstatus 348-char remark

   Show marketing remark (348 chars)

   This 3 bedroom, 1 bath home in Novelty, MO is move in ready. Newer roof. Newer carpet. Interior walls painted in 2020. Highway frontage. Big yard for entertaining. Attached 2 car garage. Open basement for storage and storm shelter. Call Mark Hunolt at 660-341-0802 or Angela Hunolt at 660-341-0152 for your personal showing today. #Hunoltsgetitsold

3. 2021-07-06
   listed $39,900 348-char remark

   Show marketing remark (348 chars)

   This 3 bedroom, 1 bath home in Novelty, MO is move in ready. Newer roof. Newer carpet. Interior walls painted in 2020. Highway frontage. Big yard for entertaining. Attached 2 car garage. Open basement for storage and storm shelter. Call Mark Hunolt at 660-341-0802 or Angela Hunolt at 660-341-0152 for your personal showing today. #Hunoltsgetitsold

4. 2021-02-26
   soldstatus
5. 2020-07-28
   listed $29,000
6. 2020-05-20
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,676
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,865
• − Property taxes: −$1,035
• − Insurance: −$345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$934
• − Management: −$934
• − Depreciation: −$2,007
• Taxable income: $2,555
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$613
• After-tax cash flow: $2,888/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This home requires extensive repairs and updates to bring it up to a livable condition. Significant investment is needed to improve its condition and increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Kitchen cabinets — Severe wear
• Major Kitchen flooring — Severe wear
• Major Bathroom fixtures — Severe wear
• Major Bathroom flooring — Severe wear
• Major Roof — Visible damage
• Major Exterior siding — Peeling paint
• Major Exterior paint — Peeling paint

Value-add opportunities

• Resale New kitchen cabinets and flooring — Modernizes kitchen and improves functionality
• Resale New bathroom fixtures and flooring — Modernizes bathroom and improves functionality
• Resale New roof — Improves home's appearance and value
• Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and home's value
• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and home's value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Severe wear	Major	$15,000–50,000
Kitchen flooring · Severe wear	Major	$15,000–50,000
Bathroom fixtures · Severe wear	Major	$15,000–50,000
Bathroom flooring · Severe wear	Major	$15,000–50,000
Roof · Visible damage	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exterior siding · Peeling paint	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exterior paint · Peeling paint	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 7 items		$105,000–350,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale New kitchen cabinets and flooring — Modernizes kitchen and improves functionality ↑
• Resale New bathroom fixtures and flooring — Modernizes bathroom and improves functionality ↑
• Resale New roof — Improves home's appearance and value ↑
• Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and home's value ↑
• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and home's value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Knox County R-I
• NCES district ID: 2911280
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,777
• Composite: 33.5/100
• National rank: #5441
• State rank: #154 of 324 in MO

Livability — Novelty

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #849
• US rank: #24810

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing D Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Novelty, MO
• Population (ZIP): 154

Population outlook (Knox County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,387 people
• By 2030: 3,136 · -7.4%
• By 2040: 2,686 · -20.7%
• By 2050: 2,292 · -32.3%
• By 2075: 1,581 · -53.3%
• By 2100: 1,027 · -69.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (99%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 99%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Knox

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.5) · D 17.2% · R 81.7% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -42.2pp toward R · 2008: -22.4pp · 2024: -64.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.5 2020: R+61.8 2016: R+55.4 2012: R+25.9 2008: R+22.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.81%
• Current HPI: 134.7845
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+137.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-22 Listed $69,000 NECAR
• 2021-08-19 Sold (MLS) — NECAR
• 2021-07-06 Listed $39,900 NECAR
• 2021-02-26 Sold (MLS) — NECAR
• 2020-07-28 Listed $29,000 NECAR
• 2020-05-20 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid