406 S Garfield St

Leaf River, IL 61047

$184,900D

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 3,848 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Pending · 19 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,424/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax + insurance: −$271
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$299
• Net cashflow: $-116/mo
• Annual: $-1,391/yr
• Cap rate: 5.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.69%
• DSCR: 0.88
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $51,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $185k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-116 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $164k (11.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $142k (23.0% below list).
• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $142k (23.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,106 in IL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Forrestville Valley CUSD 221 (rural): math 25% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #206 of 620 in IL (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Forreston Grade School (math 17% / reading 47%, grade F, #586 of 2,056 statewide, top 31%, 244 students, 0% FRL); Forreston Jr/Sr High Sch (math 28% / reading 40%, grade F, #147 of 693 statewide, top 22%, 427 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 26% district-wide (26 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 113 units permitted in Ogle County in 2024 (67 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ogle County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $185k implies a 927% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.