406 S Garfield St · Leaf River, IL 61047

$184,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 3,848 sqft · SingleFamily · 19 Days on market

Built 1900 0.30 ac lot Est $185k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This totally updated historic victorian in a quaint small town is waiting for you and your family. The home has all of the updated modern conveniences and so many hardwood details and tons of charm. The detached garage has room to park, have storage, work room, & workbench. The fully fenced back yard is great for kids, pets, privacy. It also features raised gardens, grapes, rhubarb, flowers, trees and more. Enter the back door for a first floor laundry and a full bathroom. Next enter large eat-in kitchen that features soft close drawers and cabinets, an island w/ sink and stove, quartz countertops & granite sinks, and modern appliances like an oven with proofer. Walk through the

Key facts

• Large eat-in kitchen
• Soft close drawers
• First floor laundry

Tags

• DETACHED GARAGE
• FULLY FENCED BACK YARD
• RAISED GARDENS
• FIRST FLOOR LAUNDRY
• LARGE EAT-IN KITCHEN
• SOFT CLOSE DRAWERS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-116 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $164k (11.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $142k (23.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $142k (23.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,106 in IL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Forrestville Valley CUSD 221 (rural): math 25% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #206 of 620 in IL (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Forreston Grade School (math 17% / reading 47%, grade F, #586 of 2,056 statewide, top 31%, 244 students, 0% FRL); Forreston Jr/Sr High Sch (math 28% / reading 40%, grade F, #147 of 693 statewide, top 22%, 427 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 26% district-wide (26 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 113 units permitted in Ogle County in 2024 (67 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Ogle County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $185k implies a 927% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $142,385 (23.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.69%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $184,704
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
406 S Garfield St	0.00mi	3/1.5	3,848 (0%)	1mo	$184,900	$48	99

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.80×
• Total profit: $93,319
• Equity at exit: $166,573

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.42×
• Total profit: $280,610
• Equity at exit: $359,220

Cash invested: $51,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61047

• Home prices YoY: 21.2%
• Active inventory: 6
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,424 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$194 /mo · $2,329/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$299
• Net cashflow: $-116

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,571

Max offer price $164,426

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-11	-5% $-64	+0% $-116	+5% $-168	+10% $-221
Rent	-10% $-228	-5% $-172	+0% $-116	+5% $-60	+10% $-3
Rate	-1.0pp $-23	-0.5pp $-69	base $-116	+0.5pp $-164	+1.0pp $-213

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,225
• Closing costs: $5,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-04-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-22
   price $184,900
3. 2026-03-13
   listed $189,900 Active
4. 2025-11-10
   historical
5. 2025-10-23
   price $187,000
6. 2025-10-23
   price
7. 2025-09-22
   price
8. 2025-09-22
   price $197,000
9. 2025-09-11
   price $210,000
10. 2025-09-11
    price
11. 2025-09-04
    listed Active
12. 2020-01-02
    soldstatus $18,000
13. 2019-08-05
    listed $31,750

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,329 · $194/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,263 · $272/mo
• Expected delta: +$934/yr (+$78/mo · 40.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,086
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,357
• − Property taxes: −$2,329
• − Insurance: −$924
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,367
• − Management: −$1,367
• − Depreciation: −$5,379
• Taxable loss: −$4,637
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,113
• After-tax cash flow: $-278/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forrestville Valley CUSD 221
• NCES district ID: 1715490
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $53,298
• Composite: 29.35/100
• National rank: #6535
• State rank: #206 of 620 in IL

Livability — Leaf River

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1106
• US rank: #20934

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Leaf River, IL
• Population (ZIP): 1,728

Population outlook (Ogle County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 48,390 people
• By 2030: 46,346 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 41,772 · -13.7%
• By 2050: 36,911 · -23.7%
• By 2075: 27,130 · -43.9%
• By 2100: 18,627 · -61.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Scottish 4% Lithuanian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ogle

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.4) · D 34.5% · R 63.9% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.8pp toward R · 2008: -7.6pp · 2024: -29.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.4 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.6 2012: R+16.7 2008: R+7.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 51.45%
• Current HPI: 294.61
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+482.4% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Pending — NWIAR
• 2026-03-22 Price Changed $184,900 NWIAR
• 2026-03-13 Listed $189,900 NWIAR
• 2025-11-10 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-23 Price Changed $187,000 NWIAR
• 2025-10-23 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-22 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-22 Price Changed $197,000 NWIAR
• 2025-09-11 Price Changed $210,000 NWIAR
• 2025-09-11 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-04 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-01-02 Sold (MLS) $18,000 NWIAR
• 2019-08-05 Listed $31,750 NWIAR

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,329 · +11.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.