1303 River Birch Run S

Chesapeake, VA 23320

$250,000D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,072 sqft · Built 1979 · Townhouse · Active · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,122/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax + insurance: −$417
• HOA: −$31
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$446
• Net cashflow: $-83/mo
• Annual: $-992/yr
• Cap rate: 5.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.42%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $70,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $250k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-83 ($-992/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $238k (4.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $212k (15.1% below list).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $212k (15.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#236 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, cost of living C-, amenities F.
• Chesapeake City Public School District (suburban): math 58% / reading 74% proficiency, ranked #31 of 131 in VA (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Greenbrier Primary (676 students, 38% FRL); Greenbrier Middle (math 48% / reading 70%, grade B, #166 of 342 statewide, top 50%, 827 students, 42% FRL); Indian River High (math 69% / reading 73%, grade B+, #146 of 319 statewide, top 47%, 1,701 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 28% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.8%/yr); 286 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 597 units permitted in Chesapeake city in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chesapeake County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $125k; list at $250k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.8% in Chesapeake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.