1303 River Birch Run S · Chesapeake, VA 23320

$250,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,072 sqft · Townhouse public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1979 Est $236k · 6% over $31/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• ARV discount +4.8/15.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this beautifully maintained 2 bedroom townhouse that has been meticulously cared for and is truly move in ready. From the moment you step inside, you will appreciate the comfortable layout, fresh feel, and thoughtful updates throughout. Enjoy peace of mind with a brand new roof, HVAC less than 5 years old, and brand new carpet, giving you the confidence to settle in without the stress of major updates. The home offers inviting living spaces, generous bedrooms, and a practical floor plan that works well for everyday living. The backyard offers a scenic area to relax with a new deck and "ez breeze" awning. Conveniently located near dining, shopping, and everyday esse

Key facts

• Ez breeze awning
• New carpet
• New deck

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• HVAC LESS THAN 5 YEARS OLD
• NEW CARPET
• NEW DECK
• EZ BREEZE AWNING
• EASY ACCESS TO THE INTERSTATE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Part of Greenbrier Property Owners Association; HOA fee $31 monthly

Exterior

• Parking: 2 assigned/reserved parking spaces
• Utilities: City/County water; City/County sewer; Electric water heater; Electric power
• Home design: Attached townhouse; 2 stories (2 living levels); Slab foundation; Simple ownership
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt shingle roof; Built on slab
• Exterior features: Cul-de-sac location; Patio; Back privacy wood fence

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom; Additional bedroom; No bedroom with full bath on first floor
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump; Central air
• Interior features: Walk-in closet; Window treatments; Attic
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-63 ($-760/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $241k (3.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (14.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $215k (14.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.7% in Chesapeake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#236 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, cost of living C-, amenities F.
• Chesapeake City Public School District (suburban): math 58% / reading 74% proficiency, ranked #31 of 131 in VA (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Greenbrier Primary (676 students, 38% FRL); Greenbrier Middle (math 48% / reading 70%, grade B, #166 of 342 statewide, top 50%, 827 students, 42% FRL); Indian River High (math 69% / reading 73%, grade B+, #146 of 319 statewide, top 47%, 1,701 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 28% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.8%/yr); 286 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 597 units permitted in Chesapeake city in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chesapeake County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $125k; list at $250k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $214,605 (14.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.09%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $235,840
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1319 River Birch Run S	0.04mi	2/1.5	1,072 (0%)	6mo	$259,500	$242	91
923 Captains Ct	0.39mi	2/1.5	1,026 (-4%)	4mo	$253,000	$247	70
927 Still Harbor Cir	0.65mi	2/1.5	1,064 (-1%)	3mo	$260,000	$244	64
919 Captains Ct	0.39mi	2/1.5	993 (-7%)	5mo	$195,000	$196	64
943 Still Harbor Cir	0.69mi	2/1.5	1,064 (-1%)	3mo	$265,000	$249	62
942 Brigantine Ct	0.45mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,140 (+6%)	2mo	$289,900	$254	59
1605 Stone Moss Reach Unit B	0.56mi	2/2.0	978 (-9%)	2mo	$206,000	$211	58
1605 Stone Moss Reach Unit D	0.56mi	2/2.0	978 (-9%)	4mo	$205,000	$210	56
1701 Stoney Creek Arch Unit C	0.58mi	2/2.0	978 (-9%)	6mo	$215,000	$220	54
2108 Rocky Point Run Unit D	0.64mi	2/2.0	978 (-9%)	6mo	$199,900	$204	50
1716 Rock Bridge Mews Unit D	0.66mi	2/2.0	978 (-9%)	6mo	$205,000	$210	50
929 Still Harbor Cir	0.66mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,216 (+13%)	2mo	$225,650	$186	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-33,673
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $14,708
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23320

• Rents YoY: 7.8%
• Active inventory: 286
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,146 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$312 /mo · $3,750/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$31
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$451
• Net cashflow: $-63

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,226

Max offer price $240,838

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $109	-5% $23	+0% $-63	+5% $-150	+10% $-236
Rent	-10% $-233	-5% $-148	+0% $-63	+5% $21	+10% $106
Rate	-1.0pp $63	-0.5pp $0	base $-63	+0.5pp $-128	+1.0pp $-194

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1301 Cypress Pl Chesapeake, VA	3.0	2.0	1204	$2,400	$1.99	25d	1	0.03mi
1301 Cypress Pl Chesapeake, VA	3.0	2.0	1204	$2,400	$1.99	5d	1	0.03mi
1315 River Birch Run S Chesapeake, VA	3.0	1.5	1244	$1,950	$1.57	5d	1	0.05mi
1315 River Birch Run S Chesapeake, VA	3.0	1.5	1244	$1,950	$1.57	13d	1	0.05mi
1005 Scarlet Oak Ct S Chesapeake, VA	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,400	$1.71	25d	1	0.21mi
1501 Carlton Dr Chesapeake, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1075	$2,170	$2.02	4d	11	0.37mi
1140 Ivystone Sq Chesapeake, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1023	$2,168	$2.12	3d	26	0.42mi
935 Still Harbor Cir Chesapeake, VA	2.0	1.5	1064	$1,995	$1.88	3d	1	0.64mi
929 Wintercress Way Chesapeake, VA	3.0	1.0–2.0	898	$2,396	$2.67	5d	17	0.71mi
150 Coveside Ln Chesapeake, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1120	$2,240	$2.00	4d	29	0.75mi
912 Saint Andrews Reach Unit A Chesapeake, VA	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,450	$1.88	25d	1	0.76mi
912 Saint Andrews Reach Unit A Chesapeake, VA	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,450	$1.88	13d	1	0.76mi
1119 Shoal Creek Trl Chesapeake, VA	2.0	2.0	1500	$1,995	$1.33	14d	1	0.79mi
905 Saint Andrews Reach Unit B Chesapeake, VA	1.0	1.0	900	$1,650	$1.83	25d	1	0.81mi
2008 Fawnwood Cmn Chesapeake, VA	3.0	1.5	1131	$1,950	$1.72	25d	1	0.99mi
1924 Woodgate Arch Chesapeake, VA	2.0	2.5	1264	$1,850	$1.46	19d	1	1.04mi
1924 Woodgate Arch Unit 1 Chesapeake, VA	2.0	2.5	1264	$1,850	$1.46	18d	1	1.04mi
1402 Poules Ln Chesapeake, VA	2.0	2.5	1384	$2,410	$1.74	25d	1	1.07mi
1314 Kingston Way Chesapeake, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	979	$1,855	$1.89	12d	1	1.37mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $31 · $372/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $250,000 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   statusdays on market $250,000 Active 1 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $250,000 Coming Soon 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $250,000 Coming Soon 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $250,000 Coming Soon 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 689-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $250,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,753
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$3,750
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,060
• − Management: −$2,060
• − HOA: −$372
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$5,016
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,204
• After-tax cash flow: $444/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chesapeake City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100810
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 74% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $69,356
• Composite: 57.84/100
• National rank: #1047
• State rank: #31 of 131 in VA

Livability — Chesapeake

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #236
• US rank: #7942

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chesapeake, VA
• County: Chesapeake City · 253,091 people
• City population: 253,091
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• Population (ZIP): 59,108
• Household income: $84,305
• Rent vs Own: 35.5% rent · 64.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2714.0

Population outlook (Chesapeake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 263,804 people
• By 2030: 276,798 · +4.9%
• By 2040: 299,906 · +13.7%
• By 2050: 318,284 · +20.7%
• By 2075: 362,137 · +37.3%
• By 2100: 372,225 · +41.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Black 29% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% Tagalog/Filipino 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chesapeake

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.3% · R 47.5% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.5pp toward D · 2008: 1.3pp · 2024: 3.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+3.8 2020: D+6.5 2016: R+1.3 2012: D+1.1 2008: D+1.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -241.43%
• Current HPI: 285.5792
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.78%
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+461.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Coming Soon $250,000 REINMLS
• 2012-08-20 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 2004-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 1989-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 1987-06-19 Sold (Public Records) $44,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-10.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $330 · -64.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.