3805 Shady Ln

Cross Timber, TX 76058

$279,000C

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,624 sqft · Built 2012 · Manufactured · Pending · 18 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,150/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax + insurance: −$228
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$662
• Net cashflow: $797/mo
• Annual: $9,569/yr
• Cap rate: 9.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.25%
• DSCR: 1.55
• 1% rule: 1.13%
• Cash to close: $78,120

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $279k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $797 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $279k).
• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($275k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $275k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#905 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Joshua ISD (rural): math 52% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #139 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: A G Elder El (math 55% / reading 44%, grade D, #865 of 4,322 statewide, top 21%, 620 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 45% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 420 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $78k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.