3805 Shady Ln · Cross Timber, TX 76058

$279,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,624 sqft · Manufactured public records · 18 Days on market

Built 2012 0.46 ac lot $106/sqft · 10% above area Est $254k · 10% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.2/30.0
• DSCR +9.5/10.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• ARV discount +3.1/15.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Spacious, beautifully maintained manufactured home offering over 2,600 sq. ft. of comfortable living with large rooms and an open-concept floor plan designed for everyday living and entertaining. Situated on an extremely large piece of property, this unique property offers endless opportunities for hobbies, business use, or simply enjoying wide open space. A standout feature is the impressive workshop complete with a bathroom, running water, and electricity, plus an additional storage shed for even more functionality. Inside, the oversized primary suite features a large dressing closet and a spacious bath retreat. Enjoy the peace of being just outside the city limits while still convenientl

Key facts

• Impressive workshop
• 0.46 acre lot
• Pool

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• IMPRESSIVE WORKSHOP
• ADDITIONAL STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is attached; Lot about 0.459 acre; Subdivision: Falcon Crest
• Financial info: Treat as clear loan type; No second mortgage
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Aerobic septic; Electricity available and connected; Cable available; Underground utilities
• Home design: Manufactured home (residential); Single-story
• Construction: Built in 2012; Preowned
• Exterior features: Lighting; RV/boat parking; Attached storage; Chain link fencing; Large backyard with grass; Few trees; Cleared interior lot; Has pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Breakfast bar; Pantry; Solid surface (non-natural) countertops; Water line to refrigerator; Built-in cabinets
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms; Primary bedroom on level 1 with ensuite bath, dual sinks, separate shower, built-in cabinets, linen closet and walk-in closet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Bathroom(s) with dual sinks and solid-surface counters
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Eat-in kitchen; Chandelier and decorative lighting; Cable TV available; High-speed internet available; Double vanity; Walk-in closets; Built-in cabinets; Linen closet; Separate shower; Separate vanities; Custom closet system
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer excluded from sale

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $279k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $797 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $279k).
• Recommended offer: $275k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#905 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Joshua ISD (rural): math 52% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #139 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: A G Elder El (math 55% / reading 44%, grade D, #865 of 4,322 statewide, top 21%, 620 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 45% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 420 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $78k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($275k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $274,815 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.25%
• DSCR: 1.55
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $254,226
• List price: $279,000
• Delta: 9.74%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $5,482
• Equity at exit: $41,600

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.89×
• Total profit: $69,775
• Equity at exit: $24,123

Cash invested: $78,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76058

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Active inventory: 420
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,150 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax from tax record: −$112 /mo · $1,340/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$662
• Net cashflow: $797

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,141

Max offer price $279,000

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,750
• Closing costs: $8,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3617 Northcrest Dr Cleburne, TX	4.0	3.0	2520	$3,150	$1.25	1d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 901-char remark
2. 2026-04-23
   listed $279,000 Active 901-char remark
3. 2026-02-28
   historical
4. 2026-01-06
   price $275,000
5. 2025-11-16
   listed $285,000 Active
6. 2025-10-31
   historical
7. 2025-08-03
   listed $285,000 Active
8. 2024-06-03
   listed $305,000 Active
9. 2022-07-28
   soldstatus Closed
10. 2022-07-18
    status Pending
11. 2022-07-12
    historical Active Option Contract
12. 2022-07-08
    status Active
13. 2022-07-04
    historical Active Option Contract
14. 2022-07-01
    listed $272,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,340 · $112/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,106 · $425/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,765/yr (+$314/mo · 280.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,628
• − Property taxes: −$1,340
• − Insurance: −$1,395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,024
• − Management: −$3,024
• − Depreciation: −$8,116
• Taxable income: $5,272
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,265
• After-tax cash flow: $8,304/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Joshua ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824930
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $60,696
• Composite: 44.65/100
• National rank: #2769
• State rank: #139 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cross Timber

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #905
• US rank: #16199

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime B+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 21,531

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 18% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.22%
• Current HPI: 265.6513
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+2.6% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $279,000 NTREIS
• 2026-02-28 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-01-06 Price Changed $275,000 NTREIS
• 2025-11-16 Listed $285,000 NTREIS
• 2025-10-31 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-08-03 Listed $285,000 NTREIS
• 2024-06-03 Listed $305,000 NTREIS
• 2022-07-28 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2022-07-18 Pending — NTREIS
• 2022-07-12 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2022-07-08 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2022-07-04 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2022-07-01 Listed $272,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+7.2%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,340 · +8.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.