3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,128 sqft ·
Built 1951
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 533 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,286/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$446
Tax + insurance
−$142
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$270
Net cashflow
$429/mo
Annual
$5,147/yr
Cap rate
12.35%
Cash-on-cash
21.62%
DSCR
1.96
1% rule
1.51%
Cash to close
$23,800
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k. Condition is rated poor.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $429 ($5k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
It's been on market 533 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,040 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F, amenities F.
Rockdale ISD (town): math 40% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #395 of 826 in TX (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 161 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 77 units permitted in Milam County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Milam County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Cap rate 12.3% vs local median 3.6% in Rockdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 533 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Major: Kitchen flooring
— Severe wear and tear.
Major: Bathroom flooring
— Severe wear and tear.
Major: Painting
— Painted walls appear old and in need of fresh paint.
Major: Landscaping
— Overgrown vegetation and debris in the yard and around the house.
CashFlowRE · CFR-03M7K31MSM1YHC
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29