128 Water St

Raton, NM 87740

$69,500B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,032 sqft · Built 1945 · Other · Pending · 171 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $950/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$364
• Tax + insurance: −$193
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$200
• Net cashflow: $193/mo
• Annual: $2,321/yr
• Cap rate: 11.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.65%
• DSCR: 1.87
• 1% rule: 1.37%
• Cash to close: $19,460

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $70k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $193 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($950 rent vs $70k).
• It's been on market 171 days — a 12% lower offer ($61k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $61k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $481 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#23 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Raton Public Schools (town): math 14% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #71 of 95 in NM (top 75%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Longfellow Elementary (251 students, 39% FRL); Raton High (math 50% / reading 70%, grade C+, #27 of 110 statewide, top 28%, 359 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 20% FRL vs 59% district-wide (39 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 60% at this address vs 19% district-wide (+40 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Raton Public Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo; built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 66 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby.
• Colfax County population projected at -39% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 171 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.