128 Water St · Raton, NM 87740

$69,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,032 sqft · Other · 171 Days on market

Built 1945 6,672 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This affordable 2-bedroom, 1-bath property offers solid investment potential for buyers seeking rental income or a low-cost retirement option. Located near an elementary school and within a short distance to downtown Raton, the home provides convenient access to daily essentials. With some updates and TLC needed, this property presents an excellent opportunity to add value and customize to your needs. A practical choice for investors or budget-conscious buyers looking for long-term potential.

Key facts

• Convenient access
• 6,672 sq ft lot
• Built 1945

Tags

• CONVENIENT ACCESS
• SHORT DISTANCE TO DOWNTOWN
• ELEMENTARY SCHOOL NEARBY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $193 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($950 rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $61k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#23 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Raton Public Schools (town): math 14% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #71 of 95 in NM (top 75%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 66 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $481 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Colfax County population projected at -39% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 171 days — a 12% lower offer ($61k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo; built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $61,160 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 171 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.65%
• DSCR: 1.87
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $1,118
• Equity at exit: $10,363

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.88×
• Total profit: $17,085
• Equity at exit: $6,009

Cash invested: $19,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 87740

• Active inventory: 66
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $950 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$364
• Tax from tax record: −$38 /mo · $462/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$200
• Net cashflow: $193

Break-even live

Break-even rent $705

Max offer price $69,500

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $233	-5% $213	+0% $193	+5% $174	+10% $154
Rent	-10% $118	-5% $156	+0% $193	+5% $231	+10% $268
Rate	-1.0pp $228	-0.5pp $211	base $193	+0.5pp $175	+1.0pp $157

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,375
• Closing costs: $2,085
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
704 Nevada Ave Apt 7 Raton, NM	2.0	1.0	700	$950	$1.36	44d	1	1.06mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2025-12-01
   listed $69,500 Active 497-char remark

   Show marketing remark (497 chars)

   This affordable 2-bedroom, 1-bath property offers solid investment potential for buyers seeking rental income or a low-cost retirement option. Located near an elementary school and within a short distance to downtown Raton, the home provides convenient access to daily essentials. With some updates and TLC needed, this property presents an excellent opportunity to add value and customize to your needs. A practical choice for investors or budget-conscious buyers looking for long-term potential.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $462 · $38/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $556 · $46/mo
• Expected delta: +$94/yr (+$8/mo · 20.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 9 d/yr ≥89°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,893
• − Property taxes: −$462
• − Insurance: −$1,850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$912
• − Management: −$912
• − Depreciation: −$2,022
• Taxable income: $1,350
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$324
• After-tax cash flow: $1,997/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Raton Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3502190
• Math proficiency: 14% —
• Reading proficiency: 24% —
• Median HH income: $33,774
• Composite: 18.8/100
• National rank: #13993
• State rank: #71 of 95 in NM

Livability — Raton

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #23
• US rank: #8557

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Raton, NM
• Population (ZIP): 7,055

Population outlook (Colfax County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,260 people
• By 2030: 9,240 · -9.9%
• By 2040: 7,474 · -27.2%
• By 2050: 6,285 · -38.7%
• By 2075: 5,109 · -50.2%
• By 2100: 4,684 · -54.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (52%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% White 44% Two or more races 21% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 14%

Political lean MEDSL · Colfax

• 2024 margin: R (+14.0) · D 41.9% · R 55.9% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.8pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -14.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.0 2020: R+11.0 2016: R+8.6 2012: D+2.0 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -80.47%
• Current HPI: 133.0875
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-12-01 Listed $69,500 NMMLS

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $462 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.