139 Menlo Park Dr

Belleville, MI 48111

$62,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Built 2020 · SingleFamily · Active · 61 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,627/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$325
• Tax + insurance: −$103
• HOA: −$723
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$342
• Net cashflow: $134/mo
• Annual: $1,605/yr
• Cap rate: 8.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.24%
• DSCR: 1.41
• 1% rule: 2.62%
• Cash to close: $17,360

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $62k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $134 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $62k).
• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($58k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $58k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $429 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#164 in MI, #4,360 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, employment D, amenities F.
• Van Buren Public Schools (suburban): math 33% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #228 of 540 in MI (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 44% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 216 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.6% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 3.4% in Belleville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.