139 Menlo Park Dr · Belleville, MI 48111

$62,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · SingleFamily · 61 Days on market

Built 2020 Good condition 1,216 sqft lot $51/sqft · 73% below area $723/mo HOA · 44% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.9/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home located in Belle Villa Lake 55+ community! Step inside to an open and airy floor plan featuring a spacious living area, a stylish kitchen with an island and seating, and a bright breakfast nook/dining area. The primary suite offers a large walk-in closet and a private bath. Two additional bedrooms and a second full bathroom offer plenty of space for guests, a home office, or hobbies. Step outside and enjoy the beautifully landscaped surroundings that truly set this home apart. Belle Villa Lake is an active adult community in Belleville, conveniently located near shopping, dining, highways, and boating/recreational activities. Community amenities include an in-ground pool, basketball courts, tennis courts, clubhouse and more. All appliances stay, making this home truly move-in ready. This home is located in Belle Villa Lake 55+ Manufactured Home Community on a leased lot. Don’t miss your chance to enjoy low-maintenance living in this wonderful community!

Key facts

• In-ground pool
• Large walk-in closet
• Basketball courts

Tags

• OPEN AND AIRY FLOOR PLAN
• STYLISH KITCHEN WITH ISLAND
• BRIGHT BREAKFAST NOOK
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET
• IN-GROUND POOL
• BASKETBALL COURTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $62k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $134 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $62k).
• Recommended offer: $58k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 3.4% in Belleville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#164 in MI, #4,360 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, employment D, amenities F.
• Van Buren Public Schools (suburban): math 33% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #228 of 540 in MI (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 216 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $429 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.6% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($58k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 44% of rent.

Recommended offer $58,280 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.62% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.24%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $230,890
• List price: $62,000
• Delta: -73.15%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
44 Chaney St	0.45mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,108 (-9%)	2mo	$147,900	$133	54
16380 Sumpter Rd	0.74mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,248 (+3%)	8mo	$232,500	$186	45
15505 Martinsville Rd	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,284 (+6%)	12mo	$210,000	$164	45
582 THORNHILL Ct	0.55mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,369 (+13%)	16mo	$349,900	$256	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.64% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $-5
• Equity at exit: $9,244

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.99×
• Total profit: $17,251
• Equity at exit: $5,361

Cash invested: $17,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48111

• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 216
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,627 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$325
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$78 /mo · $930/yr
• Insurance: −$26
• HOA: −$723
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$342
• Net cashflow: $134

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,458

Max offer price $62,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,500
• Closing costs: $1,860
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
956 Sumpter Rd Van Buren Twp, MI	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1232	$1,599	$1.30	1d	1	0.14mi
955 Sumpter Rd Belleville, MI	4.0	2.0	1440	$1,649	$1.15	1d	1	0.41mi
500 N Liberty St Apt 4 Belleville, MI	2.0	1.0	820	$1,025	$1.25	24d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $723 · $8,676/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $62,000 Active 61 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $62,000 Active 60 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $62,000 Active 59 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $62,000 Active 58 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $62,000 Active 56 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $62,000 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on market $62,000 Active 51 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $67,900 Active 50 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $67,900 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $67,900 Active 46 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $67,900 Active 45 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $67,900 Active 44 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $67,900 Active 43 DOM
14. 2026-04-18
    listed $69,900 Active 1035-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1029 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home located in Belle Villa Lake 55+ community! Step inside to an open and airy floor plan featuring a spacious living area, a stylish kitchen with an island and seating, and a bright breakfast nook/dining area. The primary suite offers a large walk-in closet and a private bath. Two additional bedrooms and a second full bathroom offer plenty of space for guests, a home office, or hobbies. Step outside and enjoy the beautifully landscaped surroundings that truly set this home apart. Belle Villa Lake is an active adult community in Belleville, conveniently located near shopping, dining, highways, and boating/recreational activities. Community amenities include an in-ground pool, basketball courts, tennis courts, clubhouse and more. All appliances stay, making this home truly move-in ready. This home is located in Belle Villa Lake 55+ Manufactured Home Community on a leased lot. Don't miss your chance to enjoy low-maintenance living in this wonderful community!

15. 2026-04-18
    listed $69,900 Active 1029-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1029 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home located in Belle Villa Lake 55+ community! Step inside to an open and airy floor plan featuring a spacious living area, a stylish kitchen with an island and seating, and a bright breakfast nook/dining area. The primary suite offers a large walk-in closet and a private bath. Two additional bedrooms and a second full bathroom offer plenty of space for guests, a home office, or hobbies. Step outside and enjoy the beautifully landscaped surroundings that truly set this home apart. Belle Villa Lake is an active adult community in Belleville, conveniently located near shopping, dining, highways, and boating/recreational activities. Community amenities include an in-ground pool, basketball courts, tennis courts, clubhouse and more. All appliances stay, making this home truly move-in ready. This home is located in Belle Villa Lake 55+ Manufactured Home Community on a leased lot. Don't miss your chance to enjoy low-maintenance living in this wonderful community!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,522
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,473
• − Property taxes: −$930
• − Insurance: −$310
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,562
• − Management: −$1,562
• − HOA: −$8,676
• − Depreciation: −$1,804
• Taxable income: $1,206
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$289
• After-tax cash flow: $1,315/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in Belleville, MI, offers a spacious floor plan and modern updates, making it an attractive option for both buyers and renters.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value.
• Resale Replace window blinds — New blinds can improve the home's curb appeal and energy efficiency.
• Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices can increase convenience and add value for both buyers and renters.
• Both Add a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and add value for both buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value. ↑
• Resale Replace window blinds — New blinds can improve the home's curb appeal and energy efficiency. ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices can increase convenience and add value for both buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Add a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and add value for both buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Van Buren Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2634560
• Math proficiency: 33% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $54,166
• Composite: 33.2/100
• National rank: #5533
• State rank: #228 of 540 in MI

Livability — Belleville

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #164
• US rank: #4360

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Belleville, MI
• County: Wayne County · 1,562,939 people
• City population: 44,709
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 44,709
• Household income: $76,595
• Rent vs Own: 31.6% rent · 68.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1200.0

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,675,273 people
• By 2030: 1,620,300 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 1,502,341 · -10.3%
• By 2050: 1,384,039 · -17.4%
• By 2075: 1,124,592 · -32.9%
• By 2100: 881,193 · -47.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Black 22% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+29.0) · D 62.7% · R 33.7% · Other 3.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.5pp toward R · 2008: 49.5pp · 2024: 29.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+29.0 2020: D+38.1 2016: D+37.3 2012: D+46.9 2008: D+49.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -238.11%
• Current HPI: 236.4458
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.64%
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Listed $69,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-18 Listed $69,900 REALCOMP