447 Low Pasture Trl

San Marcos, TX 78656

$292,500D-

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,892 sqft · Built 2025 · SingleFamily · Active · 79 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,142/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,534
• Tax + insurance: −$488
• HOA: −$54
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$450
• Net cashflow: $-383/mo
• Annual: $-4,601/yr
• Cap rate: 4.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.62%
• DSCR: 0.75
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $81,900

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $292k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-383 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $237k (19.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (26.8% below list).
• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($275k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $214k (26.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#30 in TX, #1,601 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, employment F.
• Hays CISD (rural): math 35% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.4%/yr); 307 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.1% in San Marcos — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?