447 Low Pasture Trl · San Marcos, TX 78656

$292,500

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,892 sqft · SingleFamily · 79 Days on market

Built 2025 4,530 sqft lot $155/sqft · 10% below area Est $323k · 10% under $54/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.8/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• Rent growth +1.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

* CONTRACT IN MAY AND RECEIVE A WASHER & DRYER (SELLER'S CHOICE). Homeward Title Seller is willing to assist with closing costs or a rate buy-down through preferred lender with an acceptable offer. The Franklin is one of our two story floorplans available at Sunset Oaks in Maxwell, Texas. This beautiful two-story home features 5 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms and a 2-car garage across 1,892 square feet of comfortable living space. Step inside the home from the front porch and cross the foyer to the family room, kitchen and dining room. This large open concept area is perfect for entertaining and everyday living. The kitchen features an island with a stainless-steel sink, quartz countertops, 42’ upper ‘picture frame’ cabinets, a pantry closet, and stainless-steel appliances, including a gas range. The powder room completes the downstairs space and is located at the front of the home, off the foyer. Ascend the stairs to the second floor, where you’ll find all the bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms and the utility room. The primary bedroom is located at the front of the home and includes an attached bathroom. Stretch out and relax at the end of your day in this spacious and private ensuite. The primary bathroom features a walk-in shower, cultured marble vanity with trench sink and a walk-in closet. All secondary bedrooms have amble closet space with wood shelving. Whether you use these rooms as an office, child’s room or guest room, there is enough room for work, sleep, and play. The secondary bathroom includes a shower/tub combination and a cultured marble vanity with trench sink.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Island with sink
• Two story floorplans

Tags

• TWO STORY FLOORPLANS
• OPEN CONCEPT AREA
• ISLAND WITH SINK
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• UPPER PICTURE FRAME CABINETS
• PANTRY CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $292k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-383 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $237k (19.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (26.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $214k (26.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.1% in San Marcos — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#30 in TX, #1,601 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, employment F.
• Hays CISD (rural): math 35% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.4%/yr); 307 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($275k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $214,171 (26.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.62%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $323,449
• List price: $292,500
• Delta: -9.57%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
482 Low Pasture Trl	0.04mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,892 (0%)	3mo	$314,990	$166	91
385 Soapstone Pass	0.35mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,837 (-3%)	1mo	$229,900	$125	73
182 Geode Gln	0.35mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,950 (+3%)	6mo	$229,900	$118	69
453 Soapstone Pass	0.39mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,984 (+5%)	9mo	$237,500	$120	61
356 Jade St	0.48mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,997 (+6%)	7mo	$321,630	$161	58
342 Jade St	0.49mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,072 (+10%)	4mo	$294,270	$142	53
227 Basalt Dr	0.66mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,847 (-2%)	13mo	$249,990	$135	50
206 Kyanite Dr	0.69mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,945 (+3%)	13mo	$273,990	$141	48
162 Gabbro Gdns	0.38mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,616 (-15%)	5mo	$199,999	$124	47
205 Ammolite Ln	0.75mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,954 (+3%)	12mo	$299,990	$154	45
255 Kyanite Dr	0.71mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,802 (-5%)	11mo	$251,990	$140	45
172 Ammolite Ln	0.73mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,802 (-5%)	11mo	$243,990	$135	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.02% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-52,983
• Equity at exit: $70,259

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-78,085
• Equity at exit: $73,482

Cash invested: $81,900 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78656

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: -5.4%
• Active inventory: 307
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,142 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,534
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$366 /mo · $4,388/yr
• Insurance: −$122
• HOA: −$54
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$450
• Net cashflow: $-383

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,627

Max offer price $237,014

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,125
• Closing costs: $8,775
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
351 Cobb Branch Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1616	$1,912	$1.18	1d	4	0.16mi
566 Gabbro Gdns Maxwell, TX	4.0	2.5	1837	$1,850	$1.01	16d	1	0.16mi
543 Gabbro Gdns Maxwell, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,695	$1.04	21d	1	0.19mi
328 Mica Trl Maxwell, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,595	$0.98	43d	1	0.22mi
275 Aplite Pass Maxwell, TX	2.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1733	$2,680	$1.55	1d	1	0.23mi
300 Geode Gln Maxwell, TX	4.0	2.5	1712	$1,795	$1.05	43d	1	0.29mi
192 Gabbro Gdns Maxwell, TX	4.0	2.5	1610	$1,699	$1.06	43d	1	0.37mi
342 Jade St Maxwell, TX	4.0	2.5	2072	$1,975	$0.95	43d	1	0.49mi
274 Jade St Maxwell, TX	4.0	2.0	1468	$1,795	$1.22	43d	1	0.56mi
1413 Soapstone Pass Maxwell, TX	4.0	3.0	1952	$2,500	$1.28	43d	1	0.64mi
170 Bright Flora Ln Maxwell, TX	4.0	2.5	2312	$1,950	$0.84	43d	1	0.65mi
214 Kyanite Dr Maxwell, TX	4.0	2.5	1535	$1,650	$1.07	43d	1	0.71mi
1259 Delta Crst Maxwell, TX	4.0	2.0	1522	$1,695	$1.11	17d	1	0.75mi
704 Delta Crst Maxwell, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.0	1904	$1,824	$0.96	1d	15	0.90mi
531 Paris St Maxwell, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,950	$1.17	1d	1	0.96mi
205 E Lima Dr Maxwell, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,999	$1.25	23d	1	1.00mi
839 Gully St Maxwell, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0	1105	$1,832	$1.66	1d	306	1.01mi
401 Lagoon Dr Maxwell, TX	5.0	3.0	2608	$2,500	$0.96	2d	1	1.18mi
361 Sonterra Dr San Marcos, TX	5.0	2.5	2522	$2,495	$0.99	1d	1	1.44mi
365 Sonterra Dr San Marcos, TX	4.0	3.0	2022	$2,345	$1.16	1d	1	1.45mi
208 Golden Grove Pkwy San Marcos, TX	4.0	2.5	2400	$2,150	$0.90	1d	1	1.48mi
344 Escondido Cir San Marcos, TX	4.0	3.0	2022	$2,150	$1.06	1d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $54 · $648/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $292,500 Active 79 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $292,500 Active 78 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $292,500 Active 77 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $292,500 Active 76 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 693-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $292,500 Active 74 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $292,500 Active 70 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $292,500 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $292,500 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $292,500 Active 65 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $292,500 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $292,500 Active 63 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $292,500 Active 62 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $292,500 Active 61 DOM
15. 2026-05-02
    price $297,500 1626-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1626 chars)

    * CONTRACT IN MAY AND RECEIVE A WASHER & DRYER (SELLER'S CHOICE). Homeward Title Seller is willing to assist with closing costs or a rate buy-down through preferred lender with an acceptable offer. The Franklin is one of our two story floorplans available at Sunset Oaks in Maxwell, Texas. This beautiful two-story home features 5 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms and a 2-car garage across 1,892 square feet of comfortable living space. Step inside the home from the front porch and cross the foyer to the family room, kitchen and dining room. This large open concept area is perfect for entertaining and everyday living. The kitchen features an island with a stainless-steel sink, quartz countertops, 42’ upper ‘picture frame’ cabinets, a pantry closet, and stainless-steel appliances, including a gas range. The powder room completes the downstairs space and is located at the front of the home, off the foyer. Ascend the stairs to the second floor, where you’ll find all the bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms and the utility room. The primary bedroom is located at the front of the home and includes an attached bathroom. Stretch out and relax at the end of your day in this spacious and private ensuite. The primary bathroom features a walk-in shower, cultured marble vanity with trench sink and a walk-in closet. All secondary bedrooms have amble closet space with wood shelving. Whether you use these rooms as an office, child’s room or guest room, there is enough room for work, sleep, and play. The secondary bathroom includes a shower/tub combination and a cultured marble vanity with trench sink.

16. 2026-04-09
    price $300,000 1626-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1626 chars)

    * CONTRACT IN MAY AND RECEIVE A WASHER & DRYER (SELLER'S CHOICE). Homeward Title Seller is willing to assist with closing costs or a rate buy-down through preferred lender with an acceptable offer. The Franklin is one of our two story floorplans available at Sunset Oaks in Maxwell, Texas. This beautiful two-story home features 5 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms and a 2-car garage across 1,892 square feet of comfortable living space. Step inside the home from the front porch and cross the foyer to the family room, kitchen and dining room. This large open concept area is perfect for entertaining and everyday living. The kitchen features an island with a stainless-steel sink, quartz countertops, 42’ upper ‘picture frame’ cabinets, a pantry closet, and stainless-steel appliances, including a gas range. The powder room completes the downstairs space and is located at the front of the home, off the foyer. Ascend the stairs to the second floor, where you’ll find all the bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms and the utility room. The primary bedroom is located at the front of the home and includes an attached bathroom. Stretch out and relax at the end of your day in this spacious and private ensuite. The primary bathroom features a walk-in shower, cultured marble vanity with trench sink and a walk-in closet. All secondary bedrooms have amble closet space with wood shelving. Whether you use these rooms as an office, child’s room or guest room, there is enough room for work, sleep, and play. The secondary bathroom includes a shower/tub combination and a cultured marble vanity with trench sink.

17. 2026-03-31
    listed $315,000 Active 1626-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1626 chars)

    * CONTRACT IN MAY AND RECEIVE A WASHER & DRYER (SELLER'S CHOICE). Homeward Title Seller is willing to assist with closing costs or a rate buy-down through preferred lender with an acceptable offer. The Franklin is one of our two story floorplans available at Sunset Oaks in Maxwell, Texas. This beautiful two-story home features 5 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms and a 2-car garage across 1,892 square feet of comfortable living space. Step inside the home from the front porch and cross the foyer to the family room, kitchen and dining room. This large open concept area is perfect for entertaining and everyday living. The kitchen features an island with a stainless-steel sink, quartz countertops, 42’ upper ‘picture frame’ cabinets, a pantry closet, and stainless-steel appliances, including a gas range. The powder room completes the downstairs space and is located at the front of the home, off the foyer. Ascend the stairs to the second floor, where you’ll find all the bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms and the utility room. The primary bedroom is located at the front of the home and includes an attached bathroom. Stretch out and relax at the end of your day in this spacious and private ensuite. The primary bathroom features a walk-in shower, cultured marble vanity with trench sink and a walk-in closet. All secondary bedrooms have amble closet space with wood shelving. Whether you use these rooms as an office, child’s room or guest room, there is enough room for work, sleep, and play. The secondary bathroom includes a shower/tub combination and a cultured marble vanity with trench sink.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,701
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,385
• − Property taxes: −$4,388
• − Insurance: −$1,462
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,056
• − Management: −$2,056
• − HOA: −$648
• − Depreciation: −$8,509
• Taxable loss: −$9,803
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,353
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,249/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hays CISD
• NCES district ID: 4800010
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,570
• Composite: 34.78/100
• National rank: #5118
• State rank: #390 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Marcos

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #30
• US rank: #1601

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A- Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Caldwell County · 25,195 people
• City population: 88,583
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 2,847
• Household income: $81,346
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 89.0

Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,948 people
• By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
• By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
• By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
• By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
• By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 76% Two or more races 21% White 20% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 72%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 45% English-only · Spanish 55%

Political lean MEDSL · Hays

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.02%
• Current HPI: 228.3622
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.36%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $297,500 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $300,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $315,000 Unlock MLS