10231 Brightwood Ave

Bellwood, VA 23224

$187,750C-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,182 sqft · Built 1940 · SingleFamily · Active · 19 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,555/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$985
• Tax + insurance: −$226
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$327
• Net cashflow: $18/mo
• Annual: $216/yr
• Cap rate: 6.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.41%
• DSCR: 1.02
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $52,570

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $188k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $18 ($216/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $156k (17.2% below list).
• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($185k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $156k (17.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#426 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Chesterfield County Public School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #57 of 131 in VA (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bellwood Elementary (math 30% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,002 of 1,108 statewide, top 91%, 467 students, 82% FRL); Salem Church Middle (math 34% / reading 44%, grade F, #309 of 342 statewide, top 91%, 910 students, 80% FRL); Lloyd C. Bird High (math 40% / reading 73%, grade C, #270 of 319 statewide, top 86%, 2,031 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 26% district-wide (54 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 42% at this address vs 58% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Chesterfield County Public School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 177 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,307 units permitted in Chesterfield County in 2024 (462 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chesterfield County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.