10231 Brightwood Ave · Bellwood, VA 23224

$187,750

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,182 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1940 3.02 ac lot Est $304k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 3.02 acre lot
• Built 1940
• Listed 19 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service
• Home design: Detached property
• Construction: Vinyl and wood siding; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Year built reported by assessor
• Exterior features: Subdivision possible; Water-oriented property on a creek; Above-grade and below-grade structures noted

Interior

• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Hot water and electric baseboard heating; Electric hot water
• Interior features: No basement; Finished living area reported by assessor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $188k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $18 ($216/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $156k (17.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $156k (17.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#426 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Chesterfield County Public School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #57 of 131 in VA (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bellwood Elementary (math 30% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,002 of 1,108 statewide, top 91%, 467 students, 82% FRL); Salem Church Middle (math 34% / reading 44%, grade F, #309 of 342 statewide, top 91%, 910 students, 80% FRL); Lloyd C. Bird High (math 40% / reading 73%, grade C, #270 of 319 statewide, top 86%, 2,031 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 26% district-wide (54 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 42% at this address vs 58% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Chesterfield County Public School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 177 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,307 units permitted in Chesterfield County in 2024 (462 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chesterfield County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($185k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,515 (17.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.41%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $303,774
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9925 Reymet Ct	0.46mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,232 (+4%)	1mo	$307,000	$249	61
10807 Stilton Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (+2%)	3mo	$308,000	$257	59
3012 Kenova Dr	0.49mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,292 (+9%)	1mo	$277,500	$215	56
3001 Kenova Dr	0.45mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,040 (-12%)	7mo	$231,000	$222	48
2942 Gaffney Rd	0.56mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,040 (-12%)	3mo	$277,000	$266	46
9825 Proctors Rd	0.51mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,040 (-12%)	9mo	$273,000	$263	44
9709 Kerwin Rd	0.54mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,336 (+13%)	8mo	$255,000	$191	42
3029 Gaffney Rd	0.62mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,014 (-14%)	3mo	$270,000	$266	40
2721 Perlock Rd	0.55mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,032 (-13%)	11mo	$280,000	$271	39
9812 Ashwood Rd	0.66mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,040 (-12%)	10mo	$267,000	$257	34
10900 Timonium Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,348 (+14%)	9mo	$315,000	$234	25
10911 Rufford Rd	0.67mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,348 (+14%)	13mo	$346,001	$257	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.55% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-26,843
• Equity at exit: $27,994

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-11,588
• Equity at exit: $16,233

Cash invested: $52,570 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23224

• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 177
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,555 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$985
• Tax from tax record: −$148 /mo · $1,773/yr
• Insurance: −$78
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$327
• Net cashflow: $18

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,532

Max offer price $187,750

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $124	-5% $71	+0% $18	+5% $-35	+10% $-88
Rent	-10% $-105	-5% $-43	+0% $18	+5% $79	+10% $141
Rate	-1.0pp $113	-0.5pp $66	base $18	+0.5pp $-31	+1.0pp $-80

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,938
• Closing costs: $5,632
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10250 Colony Village Way Richmond, VA	2.0	2.0	949	$1,655	$1.74	4d	7	0.19mi
9934 Friend Ave North Chesterfield, VA	3.0	2.0	1224	$1,980	$1.62	45d	1	0.42mi
11200 Route 1 North Chesterfield, VA	1.0	1.0	800	$995	$1.24	45d	1	0.76mi
11200 U.S. 1 Unit 20 North Chesterfield, VA	1.0	1.0	800	$800	$1.00	45d	1	0.76mi
11424 Elokomin Ave Chester, VA	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1074	$1,139	$1.06	25d	7	1.03mi
2716 Goyne Loop Chester, VA	2.0	1.5	1280	$1,850	$1.45	45d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $187,750 Active 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $187,750 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $187,750 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $187,750 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $187,750 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $187,750 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $187,750 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $187,750 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $187,750 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $187,750 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $187,750 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    listed $187,750 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,773 · $148/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,773 · $148/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,662
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,517
• − Property taxes: −$1,773
• − Insurance: −$939
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,493
• − Management: −$1,493
• − Depreciation: −$5,462
• Taxable loss: −$3,014
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$723
• After-tax cash flow: $940/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chesterfield County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100840
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $72,821
• Composite: 51.56/100
• National rank: #1712
• State rank: #57 of 131 in VA

Livability — Bellwood

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #426
• US rank: #18187

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bellwood, VA
• County: Richmond City · 178,280 people
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 40,575
• Household income: $50,475
• Rent vs Own: 63.6% rent · 36.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 3584.0

Population outlook (Chesterfield County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 377,190 people
• By 2030: 395,710 · +4.9%
• By 2040: 427,694 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 452,706 · +20.0%
• By 2075: 505,533 · +34.0%
• By 2100: 521,282 · +38.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 59% Hispanic / Latino 22% White 15% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 19% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chesterfield

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.0) · D 53.8% · R 44.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.4pp toward D · 2008: -7.5pp · 2024: 9.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.0 2020: D+6.7 2016: R+2.2 2012: R+7.1 2008: R+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -283.99%
• Current HPI: 336.9345
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.55%
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $187,750 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,773 · +7.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.