448 Neptune Ave Unit 16h

New York, NY 11224

$398,888D+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 950 sqft · Built 1964 · SingleFamily · Active · 18 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,837/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax + insurance: −$1,091
• HOA: −$1,050
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$806
• Net cashflow: $-1,202/mo
• Annual: $-14,425/yr
• Cap rate: 3.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.33%
• DSCR: 0.63
• 1% rule: 0.96%
• Cash to close: $111,689

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $399k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $225k (43.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $384k (3.8% below list).
• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($393k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $225k (43.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $23k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (5.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Zoned schools: Elm Tree Elementary School (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 806 students, 94% FRL); Is 98 Bay Academy (math 96% / reading 96%, grade A+, #2 of 729 statewide, top 0%, 1,488 students, 63% FRL); Midwood High School (math 94% / reading 96%, grade A+, #83 of 1,100 statewide, top 8%, 4,062 students, 73% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; HOA is 27% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.0%/yr); 116 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 10,063 units permitted in Kings County in 2024 (9,789 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kings County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wind risk, 72% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,837/mo this rent would consume 105% of the median local household income ($44k/yr) (locally 4426% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: roof inspection — The satellite image shows a flat roof, which may require inspection for any potential issues.
• Minor: landscaping maintenance — The trees and shrubs appear healthy, but regular trimming and maintenance should be considered.