816 14th Ave

Sweet Home, OR 97386-2235

$208,000C-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,675 sqft · Built 1939 · SingleFamily · Pending · 148 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,750/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,091
• Tax + insurance: −$294
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $-2/mo
• Annual: $-27/yr
• Cap rate: 6.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.05%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $58,240

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $208k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2 ($-27/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $208k (0.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (15.9% below list).
• It's been on market 148 days — a 12% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $175k (15.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#233 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Sweet Home SD 55 (town): math 26% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #29 of 58 in OR (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1939 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 311 units permitted in Linn County in 2024 (60 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Linn County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $32k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $58k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 2.9% in Sweet Home — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 148 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1939 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.