2809 New York 9h #37

Kinderhook, NY 12106

$78,000A-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · Built 1999 · Manufactured · Pending · 9 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,257/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$409
• Tax + insurance: −$130
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$264
• Net cashflow: $454/mo
• Annual: $5,448/yr
• Cap rate: 13.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.95%
• DSCR: 2.11
• 1% rule: 1.61%
• Cash to close: $21,840

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $78k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $454 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $78k).
• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($539 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#754 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: cost of living D, amenities F, commute F.
• Kinderhook Central School District (rural): math 49% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #294 of 590 in NY (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Ichabod Crane Elementary School (math 62% / reading 67%, grade B, #591 of 2,108 statewide, top 31%, 486 students, 40% FRL); Ichabod Crane Middle School (math 34% / reading 57%, grade D+, #337 of 729 statewide, top 47%, 650 students, 44% FRL); Ichabod Crane Senior High School (math 98% / reading 64%, grade A, #485 of 1,100 statewide, top 45%, 555 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 40% FRL vs 21% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 136 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Columbia County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 13.3% vs local median 0.8% in Kinderhook — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: White siding — Weathered appearance
• Minor: Landscaping — Overgrown vegetation