2809 New York 9h #37 · Kinderhook, NY 12106

$78,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · Manufactured · 9 Days on market

Built 1999 Fair condition 4,356 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks

Well maintained 3BR/2BA manufactured home with three season room and storage shed in back yard which backs up to Kinderhook Creek. Eat-in kitchen with lots of counter space, gas stove and dishwasher. Very sunny location and skylight in primary ensuite makes for a bright interior. Separate laundry area, faux electric fireplace in living room. Can be partly furnished. Rent and water are about 500 dollars per month.

Key facts

• Three season room
• Dishwasher
• Storage shed

Tags

• THREE SEASON ROOM
• STORAGE SHED
• BACKS UP TO KINDERHOOK CREEK
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• GAS STOVE
• DISHWASHER

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Private water source; Private sewer; 200+ amp electrical service
• Home design: Manufactured home (single wide); One level
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Deck; Rain barrel/cistern(s); Has a view; Located in a manufactured housing park (zoning: Park)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Master on main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Kerosene heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Master bedroom located downstairs; Rain barrel/cisterns (exterior but noted for home systems)
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room; Washer and dryer included; Water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $78k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $454 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $78k).
• Cap rate 13.3% vs local median 0.8% in Kinderhook — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#754 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: schools D+, cost of living D, amenities F.
• Kinderhook Central School District (rural): math 49% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #294 of 590 in NY (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 136 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($539 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Columbia County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $78,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.61% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.95%
• DSCR: 2.11
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 43.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.27×
• Total profit: $71,417
• Equity at exit: $70,269

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.2%
• Equity multiple: 9.59×
• Total profit: $187,608
• Equity at exit: $151,537

Cash invested: $21,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12106

• Home prices YoY: 13.9%
• Active inventory: 29
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,257 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$409
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$98 /mo · $1,170/yr
• Insurance: −$32
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$264
• Net cashflow: $454

Break-even live

Break-even rent $682

Max offer price $78,000

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $508	-5% $481	+0% $454	+5% $427	+10% $400
Rent	-10% $355	-5% $404	+0% $454	+5% $504	+10% $553
Rate	-1.0pp $493	-0.5pp $474	base $454	+0.5pp $434	+1.0pp $413

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,500
• Closing costs: $2,340
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-14
   statusdays on market $78,000 Pending 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-12
   remarks 416-char remark
3. 2026-06-12
   days on market $78,000 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $78,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $78,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $78,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   remarks 368-char remark
8. 2026-06-07
   listed $78,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,084
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,369
• − Property taxes: −$1,170
• − Insurance: −$390
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,207
• − Management: −$1,207
• − Depreciation: −$2,269
• Taxable income: $4,473
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,073
• After-tax cash flow: $4,375/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab

A well-maintained 3BR/2BA manufactured home with average exterior condition. Minor repairs and maintenance are needed to enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor White siding — Weathered appearance
• Minor Landscaping — Overgrown vegetation

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal
• Rental Trim overgrown vegetation — Maintained landscaping improves curb appeal and tenant satisfaction

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
White siding · Weathered appearance	Minor	$500–3,000
Landscaping · Overgrown vegetation	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal ↑
• Rental Trim overgrown vegetation — Maintained landscaping improves curb appeal and tenant satisfaction ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kinderhook Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3615210
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $68,409
• Composite: 47.82/100
• National rank: #2223
• State rank: #294 of 590 in NY

Livability — Kinderhook

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #754
• US rank: #14430

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 1,963
• Population (ZIP): 1,963

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 58,662 people
• By 2030: 56,557 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 51,324 · -12.5%
• By 2050: 45,790 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 35,232 · -39.9%
• By 2100: 25,846 · -55.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 9% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: D (+14.7) · D 57.4% · R 42.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.3pp toward D · 2008: 13.4pp · 2024: 14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+14.7 2020: D+16.7 2016: D+1.4 2012: D+11.7 2008: D+13.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 46.28%
• Current HPI: 379.1268
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $78,000 HVCRMLS