2628 Rockport Ln

Little Elm, TX 75068

$269,369D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,868 sqft · Built 2003 · SingleFamily · Active · 59 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,391/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,413
• Tax + insurance: −$646
• HOA: −$33
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$502
• Net cashflow: $-203/mo
• Annual: $-2,433/yr
• Cap rate: 5.39%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.23%
• DSCR: 0.86
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $75,423

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $269k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-203 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $234k (13.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $239k (11.2% below list).
• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($261k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $234k (13.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#790 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Little Elm ISD (suburban): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #327 of 826 in TX (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cesar Chavez El (math 22% / reading 26%, grade F, #3,221 of 4,322 statewide, top 75%, 491 students, 53% FRL); Little Elm H S (math 28% / reading 49%, grade F, #866 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 2,514 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 1318 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.0% in Little Elm — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.