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2628 Rockport Ln
D Composite 42.07
Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • ARV discount +15.0/15.0
  • Cash flow +9.2/30.0
  • 1% rule +3.9/10.0
  • Schools +3.6/10.0
  • Livability +3.2/5.0
  • DSCR +2.6/10.0
  • Condition / age +2.5/5.0
  • Rent growth +2.1/5.0
  • Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$269,369

2628 Rockport Ln · Little Elm, TX 75068
3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,868 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 59 Days on market
Built 2003 7,971 sqft lot $144/sqft · 23% below area Est $349k · 23% under $33/mo HOA · 1% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

Come see this one-level Little Elm home with access to a community pool. Step inside and you will find a spacious eat-in kitchen overlooking a formal dining area. Travel out back and relax under the covered patio or play on the grassy lawn. Back inside, the Master bedroom offers a walk-in closet and an ensuite bathroom with a separate shower-tub and dual sinks. Enjoy close proximity to nature and outdoor recreation with nearby Lewisville Lake. — see attached offer checklist. This home comes with a 30-day satisfaction guarantee and one-year premium warranty. Terms and conditions apply.

Key facts

  • Dual sinks
  • En-suite bath
  • Large walk-in pantry

Tags

OPEN KITCHENLARGE WALK-IN PANTRYPRIVATE PRIMARY SUITEGENEROUS WALK-IN CLOSETEN-SUITE BATHDUAL SINKS

Property features AI

Finance

  • Other: Municipal utility district: No
  • Financial info: Loan type: Treat as clear; No second mortgage indicated
  • HOA & community: Mandatory association; HOA fee $400 annually; HOA covers grounds maintenance; HOA managed by 4Sight Property Management (469-287-8583)

Exterior

  • Parking: Attached 2-car garage (approx. 20' x 20'); 2 covered parking spaces; Covered parking
  • Security: Owned security system
  • Utilities: Aerobic septic
  • Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Residential property
  • Construction: Built in 2003
  • Exterior features: Lot less than 0.5 acre; Subdivision: Robinson Ridge; Directions: 423 to left on Eldorado, right on Walker Ln., left on Rockport

Interior

  • Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Pantry
  • Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level; Primary bedroom on the main level with walk-in closet; Other bedrooms on the main level with walk-in closets
  • Flooring: Flooring details not provided
  • Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
  • Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
  • Interior features: Open floorplan; Pantry; Cable TV available; High-speed internet available; One living area; One dining area; Six total rooms; No fireplaces
  • Laundry & utility: Laundry/utility details not provided

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 3.0 mi
Loading POIs…

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $269k.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $-203 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
  • To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $234k (13.3% below list).
  • To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $239k (11.2% below list).
  • Recommended offer: $234k (13.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
  • Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.0% in Little Elm — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 64/100 on livability (#790 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
  • Little Elm ISD (suburban): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #327 of 826 in TX (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
  • Zoned schools: Cesar Chavez El (math 22% / reading 26%, grade F, #3,221 of 4,322 statewide, top 75%, 491 students, 53% FRL); Little Elm H S (math 28% / reading 49%, grade F, #866 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 2,514 students, 52% FRL).
  • Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 1318 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($261k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
  • 3 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

  • Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer $233,546 (13.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
  2. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
  4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
  6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
0.89%
Cap rate
5.39%
Cash-on-cash
-3.23%
DSCR
0.86
GRM
9.4

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$348,828
List price
$269,369
Delta
-22.78%
Verdict
UNDERPRICED
Comps
20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
2633 Rockport Ln 0.04mi 3/2.0 1,868 (0%) 1mo $334,900 $179 97
1604 Wynfield Dr 0.24mi 3/2.0 1,868 (0%) 1mo $335,000 $179 88
2756 Cresent Lake Dr 0.32mi 3/2.0 1,853 (-1%) 2mo $385,000 $208 82
1637 Fieldstone Dr 0.33mi 3/2.0 1,892 (+1%) 1mo $350,000 $185 81
1266 Waterford Dr 0.27mi 4/2.0 (+1) 1,882 (+1%) 2mo $335,000 $178 80
2832 Lone Ranger Trl 0.30mi 3/2.0 1,695 (-9%) 2mo $309,900 $183 69
1401 Whitewater Dr 0.46mi 4/2.0 (+1) 1,972 (+6%) 2mo $299,000 $152 63
154 Castleridge Dr Unit B 0.56mi 4/2.5 (+1) 1,832 (-2%) 2mo $294,000 $160 62
1905 Grand Fir Dr 0.68mi 3/2.0 1,773 (-5%) 3mo $300,000 $169 57
1413 Whitewater Dr 0.47mi 3/2.0 1,606 (-14%) 0mo $349,990 $218 55
1908 Silver Leaf Dr 0.71mi 3/2.0 1,731 (-7%) 3mo $330,000 $191 52
604 Hillside Cir 0.69mi 3/2.5 1,635 (-12%) 1mo $350,000 $214 44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
-25.5%
Equity multiple
0.16×
Total profit
$-63,395
Equity at exit
$40,164
10-year hold
IRR
-37.8%
Equity multiple
-0.30×
Total profit
$-98,193
Equity at exit
$23,290

Cash invested: $75,423 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

ZIP-level market 75068

Home prices YoY
-25.5%
Rents YoY
-1.5%
Active inventory
1318
Price-to-rent
9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$2,391 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
$1,413
Tax from tax record
$534 /mo · $6,407/yr
Insurance
$112
HOA
$33
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
$502
Net cashflow
$-203

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,648
Max offer price $233,546
Occupancy floor

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $-50 -5% $-127 +0% $-203 +5% $-279 +10% $-355
Rent -10% $-392 -5% $-297 +0% $-203 +5% $-108 +10% $-14
Rate -1.0pp $-67 -0.5pp $-134 base $-203 +0.5pp $-273 +1.0pp $-344

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$67,342
Closing costs
$8,081
Reserves months
Total cash needed

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Down + closing
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Down + closing
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Down + closing
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 40 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
2600 Misty Harbor Dr Little Elm, TX 3.0 2.0 1831 $2,000 $1.09 46d 1 0.11mi
1617 Fieldstone Dr Little Elm, TX 3.0 2.0 2086 $2,300 $1.10 45d 1 0.28mi
2801 Coyote Trl Little Elm, TX 4.0 2.0 2104 $2,750 $1.31 45d 1 0.32mi
2774 Waterfall Ln Little Elm, TX 4.0 2.0 1969 $2,475 $1.26 14d 1 0.33mi
1031 Port Boliver Dr Little Elm, TX 4.0 2.5 2177 $2,325 $1.07 18d 1 0.33mi
2777 Cresent Lake Dr Little Elm, TX 4.0 2.0 1997 $2,295 $1.15 45d 1 0.34mi
1409 Waterford Dr Little Elm, TX 4.0 2.0 2044 $2,195 $1.07 20d 1 0.34mi
1428 Waterford Dr Little Elm, TX 3.0 2.0 1429 $2,090 $1.46 0d 1 0.36mi
2793 Cresent Lake Dr Little Elm, TX 3.0 2.0 1841 $2,195 $1.19 0d 1 0.38mi
2629 Salt Maker Way Little Elm, TX 3.0 2.0 1507 $1,895 $1.26 45d 1 0.39mi
338 Castleridge Dr Unit A Little Elm, TX 3.0 2.5 1491 $2,550 $1.71 9d 1 0.42mi
338 Castleridge Dr Little Elm, TX 3.0 2.5 1491 $2,550 $1.71 45d 1 0.42mi
2408 Rolling Ridge Dr Little Elm, TX 3.0 2.0 1268 $1,895 $1.49 45d 1 0.44mi
1704 Silverwood Ln Little Elm, TX 3.0 2.0 1507 $1,950 $1.29 0d 1 0.45mi
1046 Port Isabel Dr Little Elm, TX 3.0 2.0 1564 $2,200 $1.41 14d 1 0.46mi
320 Woodgrove Dr Unit A Little Elm, TX 3.0 2.5 1740 $2,100 $1.21 26d 1 0.47mi
1006 Port Aransas Dr Little Elm, TX 4.0 2.0 1729 $2,295 $1.33 13d 1 0.47mi
2832 Cresent Lake Dr Little Elm, TX 3.0 2.0 1543 $2,250 $1.46 45d 1 0.48mi
1445 Whitewater Dr Little Elm, TX 3.0 2.0 1557 $2,300 $1.48 0d 1 0.49mi
1509 Waterfall Ln Little Elm, TX 4.0 2.5 2522 $2,995 $1.19 26d 1 0.52mi
1063 Lake Trail Dr Little Elm, TX 4.0 2.5 2115 $2,895 $1.37 14d 1 0.62mi
1900 Juniper Dr Little Elm, TX 3.0 2.0 1950 $2,325 $1.19 45d 1 0.68mi
119 Hillside Beach Dr Little Elm, TX 3.0 2.0 1400 $1,800 $1.29 45d 1 0.74mi
1579 Crown View Dr Little Elm, TX 3.0 2.0 1600 $2,075 $1.30 6d 1 0.74mi
413 Windridge Dr Little Elm, TX 4.0 2.0 1527 $1,100 $0.72 26d 1 0.88mi
2104 Oakridge Dr Little Elm, TX 3.0 2.0 1610 $2,400 $1.49 45d 1 0.89mi
2217 Bradford Pear Dr Little Elm, TX 4.0 2.5 2318 $2,450 $1.06 4d 1 0.96mi
2716 Dawn Spring Dr Little Elm, TX 3.0 2.0 1643 $2,100 $1.28 26d 1 0.97mi
2281 Miramar Dr Little Elm, TX 4.0 3.0 2246 $3,800 $1.69 4d 1 1.01mi
2229 Birch Dr Little Elm, TX 3.0 2.0 1892 $2,300 $1.22 23d 1 1.03mi
2232 Chestnut Dr Little Elm, TX 4.0 2.5 2609 $2,500 $0.96 0d 1 1.05mi
1916 Jackson Dr Little Elm, TX 4.0 2.0 2582 $2,490 $0.96 0d 1 1.05mi
2253 Barx Dr Little Elm, TX 3.0 2.0 1521 $2,240 $1.47 0d 1 1.06mi
2701 Woodlake Pkwy Little Elm, TX 3.0 2.0 1892 $1,995 $1.05 23d 1 1.09mi
2705 Lumina Dr Little Elm, TX 3.0 2.0 1600 $2,400 $1.50 0d 1 1.11mi
2152 Miramar Dr Little Elm, TX 4.0 3.0 2246 $2,650 $1.18 26d 1 1.15mi
2345 Maple Dr Little Elm, TX 3.0 2.5 2318 $2,700 $1.16 0d 1 1.19mi
1918 Caddo St Little Elm, TX 4.0 2.0 1958 $2,600 $1.33 45d 1 1.21mi
2333 Aurora Dr Little Elm, TX 3.0 2.0 1818 $2,400 $1.32 26d 1 1.21mi
2157 Olivereta Dr Little Elm, TX 3.0 2.0 1521 $2,400 $1.58 45d 1 1.22mi

HOA detail

Monthly dues
$33 · $396/yr
Likely covers
pool

Listing history 26 events

  1. 2026-06-21
    days on market $269,369 Active 59 DOM
  2. 2026-06-18
    days on market $269,369 Active 56 DOM
  3. 2026-06-17
    days on market $269,369 Active 55 DOM
  4. 2026-06-16
    days on market $269,369 Active 54 DOM
  5. 2026-06-15
    days on market $269,369 Active 53 DOM
  6. 2026-06-13
    days on market $269,369 Active 51 DOM
  7. 2026-06-13
    days on market $269,369 Active 50 DOM
  8. 2026-06-09
    days on market $269,369 Active 47 DOM
  9. 2026-06-08
    days on market $269,369 Active 46 DOM
  10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $269,369 Active 45 DOM
  11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $269,369 Active 42 DOM
  12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $269,369 Active 41 DOM
  13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $269,369 Active 40 DOM
  14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $269,369 Active 39 DOM
  15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $269,369 Active 38 DOM
  16. 2026-04-22
    listed $269,369 Active 1443-char remark
  17. 2017-07-24
    soldstatus
  18. 2017-07-19
    soldstatus Sold 597-char remark
    Show marketing remark (597 chars)

    Come see this one-level Little Elm home with access to a community pool. Step inside and you will find a spacious eat-in kitchen overlooking a formal dining area. Travel out back and relax under the covered patio or play on the grassy lawn. Back inside, the Master bedroom offers a walk-in closet and an ensuite bathroom with a separate shower-tub and dual sinks. Enjoy close proximity to nature and outdoor recreation with nearby Lewisville Lake. — see attached offer checklist. This home comes with a 30-day satisfaction guarantee and one-year premium warranty. Terms and conditions apply.

  19. 2017-06-23
    status Pending 597-char remark
    Show marketing remark (597 chars)

    Come see this one-level Little Elm home with access to a community pool. Step inside and you will find a spacious eat-in kitchen overlooking a formal dining area. Travel out back and relax under the covered patio or play on the grassy lawn. Back inside, the Master bedroom offers a walk-in closet and an ensuite bathroom with a separate shower-tub and dual sinks. Enjoy close proximity to nature and outdoor recreation with nearby Lewisville Lake. — see attached offer checklist. This home comes with a 30-day satisfaction guarantee and one-year premium warranty. Terms and conditions apply.

  20. 2017-06-17
    historical Active Option Contract 597-char remark
    Show marketing remark (597 chars)

    Come see this one-level Little Elm home with access to a community pool. Step inside and you will find a spacious eat-in kitchen overlooking a formal dining area. Travel out back and relax under the covered patio or play on the grassy lawn. Back inside, the Master bedroom offers a walk-in closet and an ensuite bathroom with a separate shower-tub and dual sinks. Enjoy close proximity to nature and outdoor recreation with nearby Lewisville Lake. — see attached offer checklist. This home comes with a 30-day satisfaction guarantee and one-year premium warranty. Terms and conditions apply.

  21. 2017-06-13
    listed $220,000 Active 597-char remark
    Show marketing remark (597 chars)

    Come see this one-level Little Elm home with access to a community pool. Step inside and you will find a spacious eat-in kitchen overlooking a formal dining area. Travel out back and relax under the covered patio or play on the grassy lawn. Back inside, the Master bedroom offers a walk-in closet and an ensuite bathroom with a separate shower-tub and dual sinks. Enjoy close proximity to nature and outdoor recreation with nearby Lewisville Lake. — see attached offer checklist. This home comes with a 30-day satisfaction guarantee and one-year premium warranty. Terms and conditions apply.

  22. 2017-05-31
    soldstatus
  23. 2007-07-17
    soldstatus
  24. 2007-07-13
    soldstatus
    Show marketing remark (377 chars)

    PRIDE OF OWNERSHIP SHOWS IN THIS LOVELY, SPACIOUS AND METICULOUSLY MAINTAINED ONE STORY HOME. KITCHEN FEATURES BREAKFAST BAR, SMOOTH TOP, ELECTRIC, SELF CLEANING STOVE, LOTS OF CABINETS, INSTALLED MICROWAVE AND LARGE WALK IN PANTRY. SECLUDED MASTER BEDROOM HAS WALK IN CLOSET AND PRIVATE BATH WITH DUAL SINKS AND GARDEN TUB. UPGRADED CARPET. OVERSIZED BACKYARD. COMMUNITY POOL.

  25. 2007-06-07
    historical
    Show marketing remark (377 chars)

    PRIDE OF OWNERSHIP SHOWS IN THIS LOVELY, SPACIOUS AND METICULOUSLY MAINTAINED ONE STORY HOME. KITCHEN FEATURES BREAKFAST BAR, SMOOTH TOP, ELECTRIC, SELF CLEANING STOVE, LOTS OF CABINETS, INSTALLED MICROWAVE AND LARGE WALK IN PANTRY. SECLUDED MASTER BEDROOM HAS WALK IN CLOSET AND PRIVATE BATH WITH DUAL SINKS AND GARDEN TUB. UPGRADED CARPET. OVERSIZED BACKYARD. COMMUNITY POOL.

  26. 2007-04-13
    listed $129,900
    Show marketing remark (377 chars)

    PRIDE OF OWNERSHIP SHOWS IN THIS LOVELY, SPACIOUS AND METICULOUSLY MAINTAINED ONE STORY HOME. KITCHEN FEATURES BREAKFAST BAR, SMOOTH TOP, ELECTRIC, SELF CLEANING STOVE, LOTS OF CABINETS, INSTALLED MICROWAVE AND LARGE WALK IN PANTRY. SECLUDED MASTER BEDROOM HAS WALK IN CLOSET AND PRIVATE BATH WITH DUAL SINKS AND GARDEN TUB. UPGRADED CARPET. OVERSIZED BACKYARD. COMMUNITY POOL.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

Current annual tax
$6,407 · $534/mo
Projected year-2 tax
$6,407 · $534/mo
Expected delta
$0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

  • 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
  • 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
  • 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
  • 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 22% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
  • 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

Loading sold comps map…

Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

Loading nearby amenities…

Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$28,693
− Mortgage interest
−$15,089
− Property taxes
−$6,407
− Insurance
−$1,347
− Repairs & maintenance
−$2,295
− Management
−$2,295
− HOA
−$396
− Depreciation
−$7,836
Taxable loss
−$6,973
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$1,673
After-tax cash flow
$-760/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

District
Little Elm ISD
NCES district ID
4827720
Math proficiency
36% ▼ -11.00%
Reading proficiency
42% ▼ -5.00%
Median HH income
$76,400
Composite
36.17/100
National rank
#4734
State rank
#327 of 826 in TX

Livability — Little Elm

Score
64/100
State rank
#790
US rank
#14430

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place
Little Elm, TX
County
Denton County · 901,654 people
City population
72,710
Metro
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
Population (ZIP)
72,710
Household income
$126,635
Rent vs Own
19.8% rent · 80.2% own
Severe rent burden
829.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
1,053,010 people
By 2030
1,192,269 · +13.2%
By 2040
1,472,920 · +39.9%
By 2050
1,746,506 · +65.9%
By 2075
2,358,497 · +124.0%
By 2100
2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.74)
Race & ethnicity
White 40% Hispanic / Latino 23% Black 19% Two or more races 15% Asian 12% Native American 1%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 17%
Common ancestry
Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
Foreign-born
19% · Canada, South Korea, China
Languages at home
71% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 5% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

2024 margin
R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
2008→2024 swing
+11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
All cycles
2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

Civics

Market trends

HPI YoY
▼ -85.41%
Current HPI
249.755
Rent YoY
▼ -1.50%
Metro
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
State GDP YoY
▲ 3.95%
F500 in state
110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry F500 HQs Revenue

Price history

+107.4% since first listed
11 events — show timeline
  • 2026-04-22 Listed $269,369 NTREIS
  • 2017-07-24 Sold (Public Records) Public Records
  • 2017-07-19 Sold (MLS) NTREIS
  • 2017-06-23 Pending NTREIS
  • 2017-06-17 Contingent NTREIS
  • 2017-06-13 Listed $220,000 NTREIS
  • 2017-05-31 Sold (Public Records) Public Records
  • 2007-07-17 Sold (Public Records) Public Records
  • 2007-07-13 Sold (MLS) NTREIS
  • 2007-06-07 Listing Removed NTREIS
  • 2007-04-13 Listed $129,900 NTREIS

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,407 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

Loading sold comps…