124 Saint Croix Ln

Madison, MS 39110

$368,832D-

3 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,594 sqft · Built 2025 · SingleFamily · Active · 552 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,017/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,934
• Tax + insurance: −$392
• HOA: −$85
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$634
• Net cashflow: $-28/mo
• Annual: $-332/yr
• Cap rate: 6.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.32%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $103,273

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $369k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-28 ($-332/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $364k (1.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $302k (18.2% below list).
• It's been on market 552 days — a 12% lower offer ($325k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $302k (18.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#4 in MS, #1,556 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Madison County School District (rural): math 54% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #3 of 130 in MS (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 632 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 553 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Madison County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.7% in Madison — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 552 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.