124 Saint Croix Ln · Madison, MS 39110

$368,832

3 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,594 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 552 Days on market

Built 2025 0.33 ac lot $142/sqft · 27% below area Est $350k · 5% over $85/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 32% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• ARV discount +5.1/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful Quartz Countertops in this 3/2 split plan with extra large kitchen! Great for entertaining with a fireplace on the back porch and roomy backyard. Ready for you to move in and enjoy the Holidays!!

Key facts

• 0.33 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2025

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $369k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-28 ($-332/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $364k (1.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $302k (18.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $302k (18.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.7% in Madison — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#4 in MS, #1,556 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Madison County School District (rural): math 54% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #3 of 130 in MS (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 632 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 553 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Madison County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 552 days — a 12% lower offer ($325k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $301,722 (18.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 552 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.32%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $350,101
• List price: $368,832
• Delta: 5.35%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
113 Darrowsby Pl	0.23mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,602 (+0%)	8mo	$415,000	$159	75
172 Sonnett Cir	0.17mi	3/2.5	2,380 (-8%)	8mo	$379,900	$160	66
100 Woodbury Park Pl	0.24mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,804 (+8%)	3mo	$470,000	$168	64
42 Calumet Ct	0.44mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,622 (+1%)	6mo	$424,000	$162	64
628 Boxwood Pl	0.36mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,483 (-4%)	4mo	$424,000	$171	64
109 Brisage Dr	0.53mi	4/4.0 (+1)	2,529 (-2%)	4mo	$429,000	$170	63
41 Napa Valley Cir	0.72mi	3/2.5	2,590 (-0%)	1mo	$375,000	$145	59
220 Vintage Dr	0.61mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,704 (+4%)	2mo	$540,000	$200	56
234 Brisage Blvd	0.46mi	3/2.0	2,440 (-6%)	7mo	$435,900	$179	55
204 Belle Rose Cir	0.45mi	3/2.0	2,341 (-10%)	2mo	$379,999	$162	54
171 E Hill Dr	0.58mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,473 (-5%)	7mo	$359,900	$146	50
212 Belle Rose Cir	0.41mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,316 (-11%)	6mo	$399,000	$172	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-62,746
• Equity at exit: $54,994

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-61,866
• Equity at exit: $31,890

Cash invested: $103,273 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39110

• Home prices YoY: -28.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 632
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,017 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,934
• Tax from tax record: −$238 /mo · $2,861/yr
• Insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$85
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$634
• Net cashflow: $-28

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,052

Max offer price $363,948

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $181	-5% $77	+0% $-28	+5% $-132	+10% $-236
Rent	-10% $-266	-5% $-147	+0% $-28	+5% $92	+10% $211
Rate	-1.0pp $158	-0.5pp $66	base $-28	+0.5pp $-123	+1.0pp $-220

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,208
• Closing costs: $11,065
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
143 Sonnett Cir Madison, MS	4.0	3.0	2564	$3,250	$1.27	24d	1	0.06mi
345 Avonlea Ln Madison, MS	3.0	2.0	2185	$2,500	$1.14	44d	1	0.52mi
1011 Mcdale Ln Madison, MS	4.0	2.0	2036	$2,500	$1.23	44d	1	0.96mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $85 · $1,020/yr

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $368,832 Active 552 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $368,832 Active 549 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $368,832 Active 548 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $368,832 Active 547 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $368,832 Active 546 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $368,832 Active 544 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $368,832 Active 541 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $368,832 Active 540 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $368,832 Active 539 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $368,832 Active 538 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $368,832 Active 534 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $368,832 Active 533 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $368,832 Active 532 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $368,832 Active 531 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $368,832 Active 530 DOM
16. 2024-10-29
    listed $368,832 Active 206-char remark

    Show marketing remark (206 chars)

    Beautiful Quartz Countertops in this 3/2 split plan with extra large kitchen! Great for entertaining with a fireplace on the back porch and roomy backyard. Ready for you to move in and enjoy the Holidays!!

17. 2017-10-20
    soldstatus 423-char remark

    Show marketing remark (423 chars)

    GREAT CUSTOM BUILT HOME IN A GREAT MADISON NEIGHBORHOOD BY THE RESERVOIR! 4 Bedrooms, Library/Study, Upstairs Den w/Kitchenette, Great Kitchen w/Viking Appliances, Breakfast Bar, Island & Pantry. Lots of Windows to Let Natural Light in. Screened in Back Porch, Overlooking Private Pool/Outdoor Kitchen/Fireplace. Upstairs Balcony, Great Floor Plan, Wet-Bar. Great Master Bath! 1 YR Home Warranty, Corner Lot & MORE!

18. 2017-09-01
    listed $525,000 423-char remark

    Show marketing remark (423 chars)

    GREAT CUSTOM BUILT HOME IN A GREAT MADISON NEIGHBORHOOD BY THE RESERVOIR! 4 Bedrooms, Library/Study, Upstairs Den w/Kitchenette, Great Kitchen w/Viking Appliances, Breakfast Bar, Island & Pantry. Lots of Windows to Let Natural Light in. Screened in Back Porch, Overlooking Private Pool/Outdoor Kitchen/Fireplace. Upstairs Balcony, Great Floor Plan, Wet-Bar. Great Master Bath! 1 YR Home Warranty, Corner Lot & MORE!

19. 2014-09-30
    soldstatus
20. 2014-01-24
    listed $545,000
21. 2006-08-01
    soldstatus
22. 2004-07-06
    soldstatus
23. 2003-10-27
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,861 · $238/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,914 · $243/mo
• Expected delta: +$53/yr (+$4/mo · 1.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,207
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,660
• − Property taxes: −$2,861
• − Insurance: −$1,844
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,897
• − Management: −$2,897
• − HOA: −$1,020
• − Depreciation: −$10,730
• Taxable loss: −$6,701
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,608
• After-tax cash flow: $1,276/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Madison County School District
• NCES district ID: 2802790
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $70,579
• Composite: 48.08/100
• National rank: #2188
• State rank: #3 of 130 in MS

Livability — Madison

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #4
• US rank: #1556

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Madison, MS
• County: Madison County · 75,005 people
• City population: 50,443
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 50,443
• Household income: $125,506
• Rent vs Own: 9.1% rent · 90.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 227.0

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 122,509 people
• By 2030: 131,737 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 148,930 · +21.6%
• By 2050: 164,300 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 197,495 · +61.2%
• By 2100: 211,429 · +72.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Black 15% Asian 4% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: R (+17.3) · D 40.8% · R 58.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.7pp toward R · 2008: -15.6pp · 2024: -17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.3 2020: R+11.8 2016: R+16.1 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+15.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.99%
• Current HPI: 154.6909
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.61%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-32.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2024-10-29 Listed $368,832 MLSU
• 2017-10-20 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2017-09-01 Listed $525,000 MLSU
• 2014-09-30 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2014-01-24 Listed $545,000 MLSU
• 2006-08-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-07-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-10-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,861 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.