Lincolnshire Plan

Sedona, AZ 86336

$179,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,447 sqft · Built — · Manufactured · Active · 286 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,024/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,715
• Tax + insurance: −$545
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$635
• Net cashflow: $129/mo
• Annual: $1,546/yr
• Cap rate: 6.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.69%
• DSCR: 1.08
• 1% rule: 0.92%
• Cash to close: $91,566

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $180k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $129 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $180k).
• It's been on market 286 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $158k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#55 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, amenities B+; Watch: schools C-, cost of living F.
• Sedona-Oak Creek JUSD #9 (4467) (town): math 12% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #197 of 249 in AZ (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.3%/yr); 313 active listings in the ZIP; 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→12/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 1.4% in Sedona — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,024/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($68k/yr) (locally 239% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 286 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.