190 Ponderosa Dr

Fayetteville, GA 30214

$539,900D

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,751 sqft · Built 1983 · SingleFamily · Active · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,281/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,831
• Tax + insurance: −$582
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$899
• Net cashflow: $-32/mo
• Annual: $-382/yr
• Cap rate: 6.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.27%
• DSCR: 1.01
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $151,172

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $540k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-32 ($-382/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $534k (1.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $428k (20.7% below list).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $428k (20.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#86 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety B+, employment B; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Fayette County (suburban): math 52% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #7 of 174 in GA (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Fayetteville Elementary School (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #582 of 1,228 statewide, top 50%, 485 students, 59% FRL); Bennett'S Mill Middle School (math 24% / reading 51%, grade F, #162 of 470 statewide, top 35%, 891 students, 53% FRL); Fayette County High School (math 15% / reading 42%, grade F, #149 of 424 statewide, top 35%, 1,368 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 21% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 33% at this address vs 56% district-wide (-23 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Fayette County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 378 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 323 units permitted in Fayette County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fayette County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $331k; list at $540k implies a 63% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.3% in Fayetteville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.