190 Ponderosa Dr · Fayetteville, GA 30214

$539,900

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,751 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1983 Est $525k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• ARV discount +6.3/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Best value around; all the upgrades for less than close by comparables! Breathtaking 4 bd/3.5 ba home in a private, but convenient location! 2+ acres! Kitchen w/ SS appliances, island & breakfast bar. Downstairs features living rm, family rm, sunrm, & spacious laundry/pantry rm! New light fixtures, mirrors, & flooring throughout! Two bedrooms on main w/ shared bath! Spacious Master Ste w/ sitting rm & large WIC. Additional bedrm upstairs w/ private bathrm; great for a guest suite! Bonus room w/ unique chimney feature! Loft over garage perfect for an office or rec area!

Key facts

• Private wooded acres
• Two car garage
• 400 sq ft deck

Tags

• PRIVATE WOODED ACRES
• FULLY RENOVATED KITCHEN
• EXPANSIVE FRONT AND BACK YARDS
• 400 SQ FT DECK
• TWO CAR GARAGE
• FINISHED SPACE ABOVE GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $540k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-32 ($-382/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $534k (1.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $428k (20.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $428k (20.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.3% in Fayetteville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#86 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety B+, employment B; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Fayette County (suburban): math 52% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #7 of 174 in GA (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Fayetteville Elementary School (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #582 of 1,228 statewide, top 50%, 485 students, 59% FRL); Bennett'S Mill Middle School (math 24% / reading 51%, grade F, #162 of 470 statewide, top 35%, 891 students, 53% FRL); Fayette County High School (math 15% / reading 42%, grade F, #149 of 424 statewide, top 35%, 1,368 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 21% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 33% at this address vs 56% district-wide (-23 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Fayette County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 378 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 323 units permitted in Fayette County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fayette County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $331k; list at $540k implies a 63% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $428,051 (20.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.27%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $525,441
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
234 Stanley Rd	0.64mi	4/3.0	2,757 (+0%)	7mo	$472,000	$171	60
250 4th St	0.65mi	4/3.5	2,674 (-3%)	11mo	$1,410,000	$527	54
606 Ginger Cake Rd	0.66mi	4/2.5	2,619 (-5%)	14mo	$499,000	$191	43
210 4th St	0.66mi	5/4.5 (+1)	3,085 (+12%)	11mo	$1,485,000	$481	33
105 Ginger Cake Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,500 (-9%)	16mo	$365,000	$146	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.29% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-84,021
• Equity at exit: $80,501

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-52,602
• Equity at exit: $46,681

Cash invested: $151,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30214

• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 378
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,281 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,831
• Tax from tax record: −$291 /mo · $3,489/yr
• Insurance: −$225
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$899
• Net cashflow: $-32

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,321

Max offer price $534,269

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $274	-5% $121	+0% $-32	+5% $-185	+10% $-337
Rent	-10% $-370	-5% $-201	+0% $-32	+5% $137	+10% $306
Rate	-1.0pp $240	-0.5pp $105	base $-32	+0.5pp $-172	+1.0pp $-314

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $134,975
• Closing costs: $16,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
160 4th St Fayetteville, GA	4.0	3.0	2464	$5,600	$2.27	21d	1	0.71mi
245 Woodsong Dr Fayetteville, GA	3.0	2.5	2440	$3,500	$1.43	45d	1	0.71mi
289 2nd St Fayetteville, GA	3.0	2.5	2188	$4,900	$2.24	6d	1	0.82mi
747 Ginger Cake Rd Fayetteville, GA	3.0	2.0	2300	$2,500	$1.09	45d	1	1.22mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-05-26
   listed $539,900 Active
2. 2019-07-19
   soldstatus $331,000
3. 2019-07-12
   soldstatus $331,000 Closed 591-char remark

   Show marketing remark (763 chars)

   Welcome home! Best value around; all the upgrades for less than close by comparables! Breathtaking 4 bed/3.5 bath home in a private, but convenient location! 2+ acres! Kitchen perfect for the inspired home chef! Stainless steel appliances, island, & breakfast bar. Downstairs features living rm, family rm, sunroom, and spacious laundry/pantry room! Modern light fixtures, mirrors, and new flooring throughout! Two bedrooms on the main with a shared bath! Spacious Master Suite w/ vaulted ceilings, sitting room, and large walk-in closet. Additional bedroom upstairs w/ attached bathroom; great for a guest suite! Bonus room with unique chimney feature great for a storage room or reading area! Loft above garage perfect for an office, kids area, or rec room!

4. 2019-07-12
   soldstatus $331,000 Sold 763-char remark

   Show marketing remark (763 chars)

   Welcome home! Best value around; all the upgrades for less than close by comparables! Breathtaking 4 bed/3.5 bath home in a private, but convenient location! 2+ acres! Kitchen perfect for the inspired home chef! Stainless steel appliances, island, & breakfast bar. Downstairs features living rm, family rm, sunroom, and spacious laundry/pantry room! Modern light fixtures, mirrors, and new flooring throughout! Two bedrooms on the main with a shared bath! Spacious Master Suite w/ vaulted ceilings, sitting room, and large walk-in closet. Additional bedroom upstairs w/ attached bathroom; great for a guest suite! Bonus room with unique chimney feature great for a storage room or reading area! Loft above garage perfect for an office, kids area, or rec room!

5. 2019-06-20
   status Under Contract 763-char remark

   Show marketing remark (591 chars)

   Best value around; all the upgrades for less than close by comparables! Breathtaking 4 bd/3.5 ba home in a private, but convenient location! 2+ acres! Kitchen w/ SS appliances, island & breakfast bar. Downstairs features living rm, family rm, sunrm, & spacious laundry/pantry rm! New light fixtures, mirrors, & flooring throughout! Two bedrooms on main w/ shared bath! Spacious Master Ste w/ sitting rm & large WIC. Additional bedrm upstairs w/ private bathrm; great for a guest suite! Bonus room w/ unique chimney feature! Loft over garage perfect for an office or rec area!

6. 2019-06-20
   status Pending 591-char remark

   Show marketing remark (591 chars)

   Best value around; all the upgrades for less than close by comparables! Breathtaking 4 bd/3.5 ba home in a private, but convenient location! 2+ acres! Kitchen w/ SS appliances, island & breakfast bar. Downstairs features living rm, family rm, sunrm, & spacious laundry/pantry rm! New light fixtures, mirrors, & flooring throughout! Two bedrooms on main w/ shared bath! Spacious Master Ste w/ sitting rm & large WIC. Additional bedrm upstairs w/ private bathrm; great for a guest suite! Bonus room w/ unique chimney feature! Loft over garage perfect for an office or rec area!

7. 2019-06-07
   price $329,900 763-char remark

   Show marketing remark (763 chars)

   Welcome home! Best value around; all the upgrades for less than close by comparables! Breathtaking 4 bed/3.5 bath home in a private, but convenient location! 2+ acres! Kitchen perfect for the inspired home chef! Stainless steel appliances, island, & breakfast bar. Downstairs features living rm, family rm, sunroom, and spacious laundry/pantry room! Modern light fixtures, mirrors, and new flooring throughout! Two bedrooms on the main with a shared bath! Spacious Master Suite w/ vaulted ceilings, sitting room, and large walk-in closet. Additional bedroom upstairs w/ attached bathroom; great for a guest suite! Bonus room with unique chimney feature great for a storage room or reading area! Loft above garage perfect for an office, kids area, or rec room!

8. 2019-06-06
   price $329,900 591-char remark

   Show marketing remark (591 chars)

   Best value around; all the upgrades for less than close by comparables! Breathtaking 4 bd/3.5 ba home in a private, but convenient location! 2+ acres! Kitchen w/ SS appliances, island & breakfast bar. Downstairs features living rm, family rm, sunrm, & spacious laundry/pantry rm! New light fixtures, mirrors, & flooring throughout! Two bedrooms on main w/ shared bath! Spacious Master Ste w/ sitting rm & large WIC. Additional bedrm upstairs w/ private bathrm; great for a guest suite! Bonus room w/ unique chimney feature! Loft over garage perfect for an office or rec area!

9. 2019-05-02
   listed $349,900 Active 591-char remark

   Show marketing remark (763 chars)

   Welcome home! Best value around; all the upgrades for less than close by comparables! Breathtaking 4 bed/3.5 bath home in a private, but convenient location! 2+ acres! Kitchen perfect for the inspired home chef! Stainless steel appliances, island, & breakfast bar. Downstairs features living rm, family rm, sunroom, and spacious laundry/pantry room! Modern light fixtures, mirrors, and new flooring throughout! Two bedrooms on the main with a shared bath! Spacious Master Suite w/ vaulted ceilings, sitting room, and large walk-in closet. Additional bedroom upstairs w/ attached bathroom; great for a guest suite! Bonus room with unique chimney feature great for a storage room or reading area! Loft above garage perfect for an office, kids area, or rec room!

10. 2019-05-02
    listed $349,900 New 763-char remark

    Show marketing remark (763 chars)

    Welcome home! Best value around; all the upgrades for less than close by comparables! Breathtaking 4 bed/3.5 bath home in a private, but convenient location! 2+ acres! Kitchen perfect for the inspired home chef! Stainless steel appliances, island, & breakfast bar. Downstairs features living rm, family rm, sunroom, and spacious laundry/pantry room! Modern light fixtures, mirrors, and new flooring throughout! Two bedrooms on the main with a shared bath! Spacious Master Suite w/ vaulted ceilings, sitting room, and large walk-in closet. Additional bedroom upstairs w/ attached bathroom; great for a guest suite! Bonus room with unique chimney feature great for a storage room or reading area! Loft above garage perfect for an office, kids area, or rec room!

11. 2019-01-16
    soldstatus $141,000
12. 2001-02-21
    soldstatus $206,900
13. 2001-02-21
    soldstatus $206,900
14. 1988-02-19
    soldstatus $170,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,489 · $291/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,967 · $414/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,478/yr (+$123/mo · 42.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $51,366
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,243
• − Property taxes: −$3,489
• − Insurance: −$3,497
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,109
• − Management: −$4,109
• − Depreciation: −$15,706
• Taxable loss: −$9,788
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,349
• After-tax cash flow: $1,967/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fayette County
• NCES district ID: 1302130
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $80,746
• Composite: 50.67/100
• National rank: #1824
• State rank: #7 of 174 in GA

Livability — Fayetteville

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #86
• US rank: #7167

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fayette County · 112,821 people
• City population: 72,287
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 31,811
• Household income: $89,912
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 634.0

Population outlook (Fayette County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 120,914 people
• By 2030: 125,439 · +3.7%
• By 2040: 132,378 · +9.5%
• By 2050: 137,123 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 156,091 · +29.1%
• By 2100: 163,102 · +34.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 51% White 33% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fayette

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 51.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +27.5pp toward D · 2008: -30.7pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: R+6.8 2016: R+19.5 2012: R+31.4 2008: R+30.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.65%
• Current HPI: 243.9416
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.29%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+217.6% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $539,900 FSBO.com
• 2019-07-19 Sold (Public Records) $331,000 Public Records
• 2019-07-12 Sold (MLS) $331,000 GAMLS
• 2019-07-12 Sold (MLS) $331,000 FMLS
• 2019-06-20 Pending — GAMLS
• 2019-06-20 Pending — FMLS
• 2019-06-07 Price Changed $329,900 GAMLS
• 2019-06-06 Price Changed $329,900 FMLS
• 2019-05-02 Listed $349,900 GAMLS
• 2019-05-02 Listed $349,900 FMLS
• 2019-01-16 Sold (Public Records) $141,000 Public Records
• 2001-02-21 Sold (Public Records) $206,900 Public Records
• 2001-02-21 Sold (Public Records) $206,900 Public Records
• 1988-02-19 Sold (Public Records) $170,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,489 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.