8667 Vinkins Rd

Houston, TX 77071

$199,000D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,638 sqft · Built 1982 · SingleFamily · Active · 64 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,798/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax + insurance: −$461
• HOA: −$48
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $-132/mo
• Annual: $-1,589/yr
• Cap rate: 5.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.85%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 0.90%
• Cash to close: $55,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $199k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-132 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $176k (11.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (9.7% below list).
• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $176k (11.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-0.7%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Gross El (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 481 students, 98% FRL); Welch Middle (math 11% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,543 of 1,662 statewide, top 94%, 645 students, 97% FRL); Westbury H S (math 19% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,250 of 1,632 statewide, top 77%, 2,243 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 96% FRL vs 71% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 136 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?