8667 Vinkins Rd · Houston, TX 77071

$199,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,638 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 64 Days on market

Built 1982 4,234 sqft lot $121/sqft · 8% below area Est $217k · 8% under $48/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.2/15.0
• Cash flow +9.6/30.0
• Appreciation +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great 3 bedroom, 2 1/2 bath home with formal dining, and parquet, carpet, and ceramic tile flooring. Well located, close to freeways, schools, and shopping centers. 1637 square feet - information is from the FHA appraisal and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Evidence of mold not remediated.

Key facts

• 4,234 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1982

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association: Goodwin & Company; Annual association fee of $575

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener (2 car spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1982; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 14x14); Two additional bedrooms on the second floor (approx. 12x10 and 13x10)
• Flooring: Laminate; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Gas fireplace (1); Double vanity; High ceilings; 6 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-134 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $175k (11.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (9.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $175k (11.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Gross El (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 481 students, 98% FRL); Welch Middle (math 11% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,543 of 1,662 statewide, top 94%, 645 students, 97% FRL); Westbury H S (math 19% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,250 of 1,632 statewide, top 77%, 2,243 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 96% FRL vs 71% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 136 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.7%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,326 (11.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.89%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $216,881
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: -8.24%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12447 S Rachlin Cir	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,580 (-4%)	1mo	$257,000	$163	87
8727 Vinkins Rd	0.07mi	3/2.5	1,593 (-3%)	11mo	$265,000	$166	83
12418 S Garden St	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,695 (+4%)	1mo	$155,000	$91	75
8903 Aspen Place Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,622 (-1%)	2mo	$237,900	$147	67
8751 E Rylander Cir	0.14mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,474 (-10%)	7mo	$199,900	$136	64
15426 W Ritter Cir	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,632 (-0%)	3mo	$235,000	$144	62
8906 Westplace Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,622 (-1%)	3mo	$260,000	$160	60
8322 Sandy Glen Ln	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,819 (+11%)	2mo	$159,000	$87	55
8714 Dawnridge Dr	0.56mi	3/2.5	1,437 (-12%)	2mo	$199,900	$139	52
8538 Triple Crown Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,838 (+12%)	9mo	$239,000	$130	52
8239 Twin Tree Ln	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,874 (+14%)	3mo	$204,995	$109	51
11806 Berry Place Dr	0.68mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,820 (+11%)	6mo	$259,000	$142	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.73% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-26,186
• Equity at exit: $50,652

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-34,799
• Equity at exit: $55,452

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77071

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Rents YoY: -1.5%
• Active inventory: 136
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,796 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$378 /mo · $4,536/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$48
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$377
• Net cashflow: $-134

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,965

Max offer price $175,326

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-21	-5% $-78	+0% $-134	+5% $-190	+10% $-247
Rent	-10% $-276	-5% $-205	+0% $-134	+5% $-63	+10% $8
Rate	-1.0pp $-34	-0.5pp $-83	base $-134	+0.5pp $-186	+1.0pp $-238

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12463 Windy Wisp Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1817	$1,795	$0.99	1d	1	0.60mi
12463 Windy Wisp Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1817	$1,795	$0.99	4d	1	0.60mi
8978 Dawnridge Dr Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	2160	$2,100	$0.97	0d	1	0.60mi
12706 Riceville School Rd Stafford, TX	2.0	2.0	1235	$1,570	$1.27	45d	1	0.62mi
12700 Stafford Rd Stafford, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	993	$1,601	$1.61	0d	12	0.66mi
12660 Stafford Rd Stafford, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1027	$1,892	$1.84	0d	43	0.69mi
12404 Riva Ridge Ln Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	1679	$1,750	$1.04	45d	1	0.96mi
7842 Royan Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2101	$2,203	$1.05	1d	1	1.09mi
8201 W Bellfort Ave Unit 510 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1203	$1,149	$0.96	0d	1	1.25mi
8888 Benning Dr Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1472	$1,750	$1.19	45d	1	1.33mi
10965 S Gessner Rd Unit 1110 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,229	$0.93	26d	1	1.45mi
7809 Wolfield Ln Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1208	$1,390	$1.15	45d	1	1.46mi
12211 Fondren Rd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	817	$1,235	$1.51	0d	21	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $48 · $576/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,000 Active 64 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 60 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 59 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 58 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 56 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,000 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 51 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,000 Active 50 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $199,000 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 43 DOM
13. 2026-04-18
    listed $199,000 Active 587-char remark
14. 2010-05-18
    soldstatus 297-char remark

    Show marketing remark (297 chars)

    Great 3 bedroom, 2 1/2 bath home with formal dining, and parquet, carpet, and ceramic tile flooring. Well located, close to freeways, schools, and shopping centers. 1637 square feet - information is from the FHA appraisal and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Evidence of mold not remediated.

15. 2010-04-21
    historical 297-char remark

    Show marketing remark (297 chars)

    Great 3 bedroom, 2 1/2 bath home with formal dining, and parquet, carpet, and ceramic tile flooring. Well located, close to freeways, schools, and shopping centers. 1637 square feet - information is from the FHA appraisal and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Evidence of mold not remediated.

16. 2010-03-19
    listed $64,000 297-char remark

    Show marketing remark (297 chars)

    Great 3 bedroom, 2 1/2 bath home with formal dining, and parquet, carpet, and ceramic tile flooring. Well located, close to freeways, schools, and shopping centers. 1637 square feet - information is from the FHA appraisal and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Evidence of mold not remediated.

17. 2000-11-22
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,536 · $378/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,536 · $378/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,547
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$4,536
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,724
• − Management: −$1,724
• − HOA: −$576
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$4,944
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,187
• After-tax cash flow: $-422/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,056
• Household income: $54,139
• Rent vs Own: 48.9% rent · 51.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1242.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 46% Hispanic / Latino 26% White 17% Two or more races 8% Asian 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 33% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 25% Vietnamese 3% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.73%
• Current HPI: 250.0788
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.51%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+210.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Listed $199,000 HARMLS
• 2010-05-18 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2010-04-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2010-03-19 Listed $64,000 HARMLS
• 2000-11-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,536 · -13.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.