4 bd · 2.5 ba ·
1,851 sqft ·
Built —
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 499 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,502/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,823
Tax + insurance
−$579
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$525
Net cashflow
$-426/mo
Annual
$-5,114/yr
Cap rate
4.82%
Cash-on-cash
-5.25%
DSCR
0.77
1% rule
0.72%
Cash to close
$97,343
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $312k. Condition is rated poor.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-426 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $286k (8.3% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (19.8% below list).
It's been on market 499 days — a 12% lower offer ($275k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $250k (19.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 65/100 on livability (#135 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
Ascension Parish (suburban): math 48% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #7 of 98 in LA (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Pecan Grove Primary School (math 35% / reading 51%, grade F, #197 of 646 statewide, top 31%, 643 students, 71% FRL); Gonzales Middle School (math 18% / reading 33%, grade F, #139 of 218 statewide, top 64%, 781 students, 69% FRL); East Ascension High School (math 47% / reading 49%, grade D, #43 of 265 statewide, top 16%, 2,098 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools average 65% FRL vs 44% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 39% at this address vs 53% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Ascension Parish average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 571 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 579 units permitted in Ascension Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Ascension County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 499 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Major: exterior siding
— Significant wear and overgrown landscaping