Yucca III A Plan · Gonzales, LA 70737

$311,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,851 sqft · SingleFamily · 499 Days on market

Poor condition

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Open floor plan Four bedrooms, two and a half baths Recessed can lighting Double master vanity Separate master shower Walk-in master closet

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Double master vanity
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• RECESSED CAN LIGHTING
• DOUBLE MASTER VANITY
• SEPARATE MASTER SHOWER
• WALK-IN MASTER CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $311,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $347,655.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $312k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-426 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $286k (8.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (19.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $250k (19.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#135 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Ascension Parish (suburban): math 48% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #7 of 98 in LA (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Pecan Grove Primary School (math 35% / reading 51%, grade F, #197 of 646 statewide, top 31%, 643 students, 71% FRL); Gonzales Middle School (math 18% / reading 33%, grade F, #139 of 218 statewide, top 64%, 781 students, 69% FRL); East Ascension High School (math 47% / reading 49%, grade D, #43 of 265 statewide, top 16%, 2,098 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools average 65% FRL vs 44% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 39% at this address vs 53% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Ascension Parish average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 571 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 579 units permitted in Ascension Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ascension County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 499 days — a 12% lower offer ($275k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $250,177 (19.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 499 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.25%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $347,655
• List price: $311,990
• Delta: -10.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1211 Lakehaven Dr	0.47mi	4/2.5	1,851 (0%)	2mo	$316,076	$171	76
927 Beaumont Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,885 (+2%)	3mo	$335,000	$178	73
5125 Oakwater Aly	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,847 (-0%)	2mo	$469,900	$254	68
1203 Elliston Dr	0.44mi	4/2.5	2,033 (+10%)	1mo	$349,040	$172	62
5091 Stonewater Dr	0.60mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,807 (-2%)	1mo	$445,000	$246	62
1217 Lakehaven Dr	0.47mi	4/2.5	2,033 (+10%)	2mo	$344,500	$169	60
1217 Lakehaven Dr	0.47mi	4/2.5	2,033 (+10%)	2mo	$344,500	$169	60
1224 Lakehaven Dr	0.48mi	4/2.0	2,025 (+9%)	0mo	$343,600	$170	60
4944 Crestfield Way	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,715 (-7%)	1mo	$385,000	$224	59
1221 Elliston Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,685 (-9%)	3mo	$300,979	$179	55
1209 Elliston Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,061 (+11%)	0mo	$334,978	$163	53
4855 Crestfield Way	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,602 (-14%)	1mo	$355,000	$222	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.26% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-82,784
• Equity at exit: $51,836

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-104,177
• Equity at exit: $30,059

Cash invested: $97,343 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70737

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 571
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,502 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,823
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$435 /mo · $5,215/yr
• Insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $-426

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,041

Max offer price $285,988

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-186	-5% $-306	+0% $-426	+5% $-546	+10% $-666
Rent	-10% $-624	-5% $-525	+0% $-426	+5% $-327	+10% $-229
Rate	-1.0pp $-251	-0.5pp $-338	base $-426	+0.5pp $-516	+1.0pp $-608

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,914
• Closing costs: $10,430
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4773 Cottage Oaks Dr Gonzales, LA	3.0	2.5	1847	$2,500	$1.35	15d	1	0.24mi
4855 Crestfield Way Gonzales, LA	3.0	2.0	1602	$2,400	$1.50	15d	1	0.38mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $311,990 Active 499 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $311,990 Active 496 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $311,990 Active 495 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $311,990 Active 494 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $311,990 Active 493 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $311,990 Active 491 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $311,990 Active 488 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $311,990 Active 487 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $311,990 Active 486 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $311,990 Active 485 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $311,990 Active 482 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $311,990 Active 481 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $311,990 Active 480 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $311,990 Active 479 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $311,990 Active 478 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $311,990 Active 477 DOM
17. 2025-02-08
    listed $311,990 Active 141-char remark

    Show marketing remark (141 chars)

    Open floor plan Four bedrooms, two and a half baths Recessed can lighting Double master vanity Separate master shower Walk-in master closet

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,021
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,474
• − Property taxes: −$5,215
• − Insurance: −$1,738
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,402
• − Management: −$2,402
• − Depreciation: −$10,114
• Taxable loss: −$11,323
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,718
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,397/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive repairs and maintenance, including exterior siding, roof, and interior systems. Landscaping and interior updates would significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior siding — Significant wear and overgrown landscaping
• Major roof — Appearance suggests wear
• Major flooring — Appearance suggests wear
• Major interior walls/paint — Appearance suggests wear
• Major bathrooms — Appearance suggests wear
• Major kitchen — Appearance suggests wear
• Major systems — Appearance suggests wear

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and exterior maintenance — Enhances curb appeal and property value
• Both Interior painting and minor repairs — Improves interior appearance and value
• Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Modernizes spaces and increases value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Significant wear and overgrown landscaping	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof · Appearance suggests wear	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · Appearance suggests wear	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · Appearance suggests wear	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathrooms · Appearance suggests wear	Major	$15,000–50,000
kitchen · Appearance suggests wear	Major	$15,000–50,000
systems · Appearance suggests wear	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 7 items		$105,000–350,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and exterior maintenance — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Interior painting and minor repairs — Improves interior appearance and value ↑
• Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Modernizes spaces and increases value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ascension Parish
• NCES district ID: 2200090
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -31.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -25.00%
• Median HH income: $68,423
• Composite: 47.0/100
• National rank: #2347
• State rank: #7 of 98 in LA

Livability — Gonzales

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #135
• US rank: #12429

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gonzales, LA
• County: Ascension Parish · 98,362 people
• City population: 49,084
• Metro: Baton Rouge, LA
• Population (ZIP): 49,084
• Household income: $82,521
• Rent vs Own: 22.0% rent · 78.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 863.0

Population outlook (Ascension County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 145,480 people
• By 2030: 158,329 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 183,741 · +26.3%
• By 2050: 207,615 · +42.7%
• By 2075: 260,244 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 289,576 · +99.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 26% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 15% Serbian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ascension

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.0) · D 32.2% · R 66.1% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.7pp toward D · 2008: -35.7pp · 2024: -34.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.0 2020: R+32.5 2016: R+36.0 2012: R+34.3 2008: R+35.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -89.49%
• Current HPI: 145.3384
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.26%
• Metro: Baton Rouge, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-02-08 Listed $311,990 Zillow