77 Cmj Dr

Collins, MS 39428

$165,000D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,903 sqft · Built 2003 · SingleFamily · Active · 73 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,263/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax + insurance: −$275
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $-143/mo
• Annual: $-1,711/yr
• Cap rate: 5.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.70%
• DSCR: 0.84
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $46,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-143 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $144k (12.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $126k (23.5% below list).
• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $126k (23.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#99 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: housing D+, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Covington County School District (rural): math 26% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #78 of 130 in MS (top 60%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Collins Elementary (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #203 of 375 statewide, top 56%, 368 students, 100% FRL); Carver Middle School (math 15% / reading 22%, grade F, #120 of 179 statewide, top 67%, 266 students, 100% FRL); Collins High School (math 24% / reading 22%, grade F, #115 of 197 statewide, top 59%, 242 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 74% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP.
• Covington County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 97% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.