77 Cmj Dr · Collins, MS 39428

$165,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,903 sqft · SingleFamily · 73 Days on market

Built 2003

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming home nestled in a quiet, private setting in Collins. Located not far from Hwy 49, this 4 bedroom, 2 bath home offers approximately 1,903 sq ft of comfortable living space and sits on 1+ acre of beautiful land—perfect for enjoying the outdoors and peaceful country living. Step inside to find a spacious layout with inviting living areas filled with natural light, creating a warm and welcoming atmosphere. The kitchen offers plenty of room for cooking and gathering, making it the heart of the home. The bedrooms are generously sized, providing comfort and flexibility for families or guests. Outside, the property truly shines with wide-open space and endless possibilities. Whether you're looking to relax, entertain, garden, or simply enjoy the privacy, this acreage provides the perfect backdrop.

Key facts

• Built 2003
• Listed 72 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No parking
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Raised foundation

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Walk-in closets

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-143 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $144k (12.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $126k (23.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $126k (23.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#99 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: housing D+, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Covington County School District (rural): math 26% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #78 of 130 in MS (top 60%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Collins Elementary (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #203 of 375 statewide, top 56%, 368 students, 100% FRL); Carver Middle School (math 15% / reading 22%, grade F, #120 of 179 statewide, top 67%, 266 students, 100% FRL); Collins High School (math 24% / reading 22%, grade F, #115 of 197 statewide, top 59%, 242 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 74% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Covington County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 97% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $126,289 (23.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.70%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.75×
• Total profit: $80,800
• Equity at exit: $148,645

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.31×
• Total profit: $245,124
• Equity at exit: $320,559

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39428

• Home prices YoY: 7.7%
• Active inventory: 30
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,263 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$206 /mo · $2,475/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $-143

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,443

Max offer price $144,366

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-29	-5% $-86	+0% $-143	+5% $-200	+10% $-257
Rent	-10% $-242	-5% $-192	+0% $-143	+5% $-93	+10% $-43
Rate	-1.0pp $-60	-0.5pp $-101	base $-143	+0.5pp $-185	+1.0pp $-229

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $165,000 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $165,000 Active 71 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 67 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $165,000 Active 65 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 64 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $165,000 Active 62 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $165,000 Active 61 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $165,000 Active 60 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $165,000 Active 59 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $165,000 Active 56 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $165,000 Active 55 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 54 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 53 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 52 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $165,000 Active 51 DOM
19. 2026-04-10
    listed $165,000 Active
20. 2026-04-09
    price $165,000 831-char remark

    Show marketing remark (831 chars)

    Welcome to this charming home nestled in a quiet, private setting in Collins. Located not far from Hwy 49, this 4 bedroom, 2 bath home offers approximately 1,903 sq ft of comfortable living space and sits on 1+ acre of beautiful land—perfect for enjoying the outdoors and peaceful country living. Step inside to find a spacious layout with inviting living areas filled with natural light, creating a warm and welcoming atmosphere. The kitchen offers plenty of room for cooking and gathering, making it the heart of the home. The bedrooms are generously sized, providing comfort and flexibility for families or guests. Outside, the property truly shines with wide-open space and endless possibilities. Whether you're looking to relax, entertain, garden, or simply enjoy the privacy, this acreage provides the perfect backdrop.

21. 2026-03-27
    price $170,000 831-char remark

    Show marketing remark (831 chars)

    Welcome to this charming home nestled in a quiet, private setting in Collins. Located not far from Hwy 49, this 4 bedroom, 2 bath home offers approximately 1,903 sq ft of comfortable living space and sits on 1+ acre of beautiful land—perfect for enjoying the outdoors and peaceful country living. Step inside to find a spacious layout with inviting living areas filled with natural light, creating a warm and welcoming atmosphere. The kitchen offers plenty of room for cooking and gathering, making it the heart of the home. The bedrooms are generously sized, providing comfort and flexibility for families or guests. Outside, the property truly shines with wide-open space and endless possibilities. Whether you're looking to relax, entertain, garden, or simply enjoy the privacy, this acreage provides the perfect backdrop.

22. 2026-03-24
    listed $185,000 Active 831-char remark

    Show marketing remark (831 chars)

    Welcome to this charming home nestled in a quiet, private setting in Collins. Located not far from Hwy 49, this 4 bedroom, 2 bath home offers approximately 1,903 sq ft of comfortable living space and sits on 1+ acre of beautiful land—perfect for enjoying the outdoors and peaceful country living. Step inside to find a spacious layout with inviting living areas filled with natural light, creating a warm and welcoming atmosphere. The kitchen offers plenty of room for cooking and gathering, making it the heart of the home. The bedrooms are generously sized, providing comfort and flexibility for families or guests. Outside, the property truly shines with wide-open space and endless possibilities. Whether you're looking to relax, entertain, garden, or simply enjoy the privacy, this acreage provides the perfect backdrop.

23. 2023-02-23
    soldstatus 444-char remark

    Show marketing remark (444 chars)

    This home is located on 1+/- acres in quiet neighborhood. Plenty of room with 4 bedrooms and 2 bath. Large living room and kitchen with eating area. Also extra room for office/ study. To help visualize this home's floorplan and to highlight its potential, virtual furnishings may have been added to photos found in this listing. Close to amenities such as shopping . This one is ready for a family to move in. Call today. It will not last long.

24. 2021-05-10
    listed $119,900 444-char remark

    Show marketing remark (444 chars)

    This home is located on 1+/- acres in quiet neighborhood. Plenty of room with 4 bedrooms and 2 bath. Large living room and kitchen with eating area. Also extra room for office/ study. To help visualize this home's floorplan and to highlight its potential, virtual furnishings may have been added to photos found in this listing. Close to amenities such as shopping . This one is ready for a family to move in. Call today. It will not last long.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 97% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,155
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,475
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,212
• − Management: −$1,212
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$4,613
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,107
• After-tax cash flow: $-604/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Covington County School District
• NCES district ID: 2801290
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $33,020
• Composite: 22.09/100
• National rank: #8183
• State rank: #78 of 130 in MS

Livability — Collins

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #99
• US rank: #12165

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing D+ Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Collins, MS
• City population: 8,626
• Population (ZIP): 8,626

Population outlook (Covington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 19,294 people
• By 2030: 18,875 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 17,777 · -7.9%
• By 2050: 16,381 · -15.1%
• By 2075: 12,704 · -34.2%
• By 2100: 9,090 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (57%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Black 38% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Covington

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.3) · D 33.0% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.6pp toward R · 2008: -17.7pp · 2024: -33.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.3 2020: R+26.0 2016: R+24.5 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.34%
• Current HPI: 158.4499
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+37.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Listed $165,000 HAAR
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $165,000 LBOR
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $170,000 LBOR
• 2026-03-24 Listed $185,000 LBOR
• 2023-02-23 Sold (MLS) — HAAR
• 2021-05-10 Listed $119,900 HAAR