1 bd · 1.0 ba ·
650 sqft ·
Built 1969
· Townhouse
· Active
· 402 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,067/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$288
Tax + insurance
−$552
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$434
Net cashflow
$793/mo
Annual
$9,511/yr
Cap rate
33.63%
Cash-on-cash
97.63%
DSCR
5.34
1% rule
3.76%
Cash to close
$15,400
Investor read
This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $55k. Condition is rated fair.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $793 ($10k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $55k).
It's been on market 402 days — a 12% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $48k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 67/100 on livability (#588 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety B+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
East Ramapo Central School District (Spring Valley) (suburban): math 22% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #576 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Fleetwood Elementary School (math 17% / reading 17%, grade F, #2,011 of 2,108 statewide, top 96%, 626 students, 70% FRL); Chestnut Ridge Middle School (math 9% / reading 30%, grade F, #685 of 729 statewide, top 94%, 646 students, 83% FRL); Spring Valley High School (math 67% / reading 77%, grade B+, #677 of 1,100 statewide, top 63%, 1,434 students, 82% FRL).
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $460/mo.
Market conditions: 363 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 49d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 429 units permitted in Rockland County in 2024 (231 in 5+ unit buildings).
Rockland County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 33.6% vs local median 2.1% in Spring Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 402 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Minor: Paint job
— The walls in the living room and kitchen have some discoloration and scuff marks.
Moderate: Bathroom renovation
— The bathroom has a dated design with a small vanity and a patterned shower curtain.
Moderate: Kitchen renovation
— The yellow walls and dated decor suggest a need for a fresh paint job and possibly new appliances.
Major: Landscaping
— The landscaping is minimal, and the curb appeal is low due to the lack of landscaping and the dated interior design.
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