34 Cascade Lake Rd

Upper Greenwood Lake, NJ 10990

$239,900C-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 576 sqft · Built 1950 · SingleFamily · Active · 48 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,277/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax + insurance: −$481
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$478
• Net cashflow: $59/mo
• Annual: $712/yr
• Cap rate: 6.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.06%
• DSCR: 1.05
• 1% rule: 0.95%
• Cash to close: $67,172

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $59 ($712/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $228k (5.1% below list).
• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $228k (5.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Warwick Valley Central School District (town): math 68% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #118 of 590 in NY (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Sanfordville Elementary School (math 72% / reading 72%, grade A-, #378 of 2,108 statewide, top 20%, 794 students, 16% FRL); Warwick Valley Middle School (math 51% / reading 63%, grade B, #192 of 729 statewide, top 28%, 1,082 students, 0% FRL); Warwick Valley High School (math 95% / reading 98%, grade A+, #59 of 1,100 statewide, top 6%, 1,366 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 5% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $240k implies a 220% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 5% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.