34 Cascade Lake Rd · Upper Greenwood Lake, NJ 10990

$239,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 576 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 48 Days on market

Built 1950 0.26 ac lot $416/sqft · 21% below area Est $303k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.7/30.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Absolutely PERFECT weekend vacation getaway or year-round retreat .Situated on a PRIVATE, peaceful, corner lot on a dead end country road for your quiet enjoyment, this house is embraced by The Town of WARWICK Cascade Lake Park which is over 450 acres with an enormous Lake and access to the Appalachian Trail . With some TLC, this affordable home which hasn't been lived in for many years is ready for your artistic endeavors. Being sold "AS IS" with no guarantees .

Key facts

• 0.26 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1950

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $61 ($735/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $228k (5.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $228k (5.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Warwick Valley Central School District (town): math 68% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #118 of 590 in NY (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $240k implies a 220% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $227,657 (5.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 5% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.09%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $303,279
• List price: $239,900
• Delta: -20.90%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-34,888
• Equity at exit: $35,770

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-25,016
• Equity at exit: $20,742

Cash invested: $67,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10990

• Home prices YoY: -27.1%
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,277 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax from tax record: −$379 /mo · $4,550/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$478
• Net cashflow: $61

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,199

Max offer price $239,900

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $197	-5% $129	+0% $61	+5% $-7	+10% $-75
Rent	-10% $-119	-5% $-29	+0% $61	+5% $151	+10% $241
Rate	-1.0pp $182	-0.5pp $122	base $61	+0.5pp $-1	+1.0pp $-64

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,975
• Closing costs: $7,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
194 Jersey Ave Unit A Greenwood Lake, NY	1.0	1.0	600	$2,300	$3.83	4d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-10
   days on market $239,900 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $239,900 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $239,900 Active 46 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $239,900 Active 45 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $239,900 Active 42 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $239,900 Active 41 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $239,900 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $239,900 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $239,900 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-05-30
    days on market $239,900 Active 37 DOM
11. 2026-04-24
    listed $239,900 Active 477-char remark

    Show marketing remark (477 chars)

    Absolutely PERFECT weekend vacation getaway or year-round retreat .Situated on a PRIVATE, peaceful, corner lot on a dead end country road for your quiet enjoyment, this house is embraced by The Town of WARWICK Cascade Lake Park which is over 450 acres with an enormous Lake and access to the Appalachian Trail . With some TLC, this affordable home which hasn't been lived in for many years is ready for your artistic endeavors. Being sold "AS IS" with no guarantees .

12. 2026-04-20
    price $239,900 477-char remark

    Show marketing remark (477 chars)

    Absolutely PERFECT weekend vacation getaway or year-round retreat .Situated on a PRIVATE, peaceful, corner lot on a dead end country road for your quiet enjoyment, this house is embraced by The Town of WARWICK Cascade Lake Park which is over 450 acres with an enormous Lake and access to the Appalachian Trail . With some TLC, this affordable home which hasn't been lived in for many years is ready for your artistic endeavors. Being sold "AS IS" with no guarantees .

13. 2026-04-20
    historical $239,000 477-char remark

    Show marketing remark (477 chars)

    Absolutely PERFECT weekend vacation getaway or year-round retreat .Situated on a PRIVATE, peaceful, corner lot on a dead end country road for your quiet enjoyment, this house is embraced by The Town of WARWICK Cascade Lake Park which is over 450 acres with an enormous Lake and access to the Appalachian Trail . With some TLC, this affordable home which hasn't been lived in for many years is ready for your artistic endeavors. Being sold "AS IS" with no guarantees .

14. 1993-01-19
    soldstatus $75,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,550 · $379/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,262 · $438/mo
• Expected delta: +$712/yr (+$59/mo · 15.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 15% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,319
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,438
• − Property taxes: −$4,550
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,186
• − Management: −$2,186
• − Depreciation: −$6,979
• Taxable loss: −$3,219
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$773
• After-tax cash flow: $1,508/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warwick Valley Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3629970
• Math proficiency: 68% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $90,288
• Composite: 62.39/100
• National rank: #692
• State rank: #118 of 590 in NY

Livability — Upper Greenwood Lake

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Orange County
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 20,368
• Household income: $125,870
• Rent vs Own: 22.7% rent · 77.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 563.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 379,830 people
• By 2030: 378,955 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 375,444 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 369,311 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 354,233 · -6.7%
• By 2100: 318,150 · -16.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Iranian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.4) · D 45.8% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.1pp · 2024: -8.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.4 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+6.5 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+4.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -106.68%
• Current HPI: 287.3366
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+219.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Listed $239,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $239,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-20 Coming Soon $239,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1993-01-19 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,550 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.