4 bd · 2.5 ba ·
2,665 sqft ·
Built 1982
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 141 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,142/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,311
Tax + insurance
−$648
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$450
Net cashflow
$-267/mo
Annual
$-3,198/yr
Cap rate
5.01%
Cash-on-cash
-4.57%
DSCR
0.80
1% rule
0.86%
Cash to close
$69,972
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $250k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-267 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $203k (18.8% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (14.3% below list).
It's been on market 141 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $203k (18.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 77/100 on livability (#93 in TX, #3,241 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D+, schools D, crime D.
Pleasant Grove ISD (urban): math 63% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #30 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
Market conditions: 298 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 137 units permitted in Bowie County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 141 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
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· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29