29 Birch Ln

Wales, MA 01081

$169,999D+

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 950 sqft · Built 1993 · Manufactured · Active · 9 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,936/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax + insurance: −$283
• HOA: −$367
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$407
• Net cashflow: $-12/mo
• Annual: $-149/yr
• Cap rate: 6.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.31%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 1.14%
• Cash to close: $47,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $170k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-12 ($-149/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $168k (1.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $168k (1.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Wales (rural): math 45% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #283 of 371 in MA (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 453 units permitted in Hampden County in 2024 (116 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hampden County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.