29 Birch Ln · Wales, MA 01081

$169,999

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 950 sqft · Manufactured · 9 Days on market

Built 1993 Est $150k · 13% over $367/mo HOA · 19% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.5/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Totally renovated mobile home! Spacious & open floor plan. Brand new central heat/air conditioning. New appliances and new 50 gallon water tank. Quiet 55+ community. Low monthly lot fee of $367 includes taxes, water, sewer, road maintenance & trash removal. This one won't last long! schedule your showing today.

Key facts

• Front deck
• Concrete rear patio
• Paved driveway

Tags

• FRONT DECK
• CONCRETE REAR PATIO
• TWO STORAGE SHEDS
• PAVED DRIVEWAY
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• RAISED-PANEL CABINETRY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: Active; Directions: GPS
• HOA & community: Association present with $367 fee; Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: 2 open parking spaces; Paved driveway and off-street parking
• Utilities: Well water; Private sewer
• Home design: Mobile home; 950 above-grade finished area; Built (year source: owner)
• Construction: Slab foundation; No lead paint reported
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Private road frontage

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (propane); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: 7 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-12 ($-149/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $168k (1.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $168k (1.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Wales (rural): math 45% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #283 of 371 in MA (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 453 units permitted in Hampden County in 2024 (116 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hampden County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $168,205 (1.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.31%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $150,100
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
46 Dogwood Ln	0.07mi	2/2.0 (-1)	924 (-3%)	4mo	$110,000	$119	82
34 Cedar Ln	0.06mi	2/2.0 (-1)	980 (+3%)	7mo	$130,000	$133	79
32 Cedar Ln	0.02mi	2/1.0 (-1)	950 (0%)	22mo	$150,000	$158	74
60 Willow Ln	0.16mi	2/2.0 (-1)	924 (-3%)	14mo	$178,000	$193	70
66 Willow Ln	0.15mi	2/2.0 (-1)	980 (+3%)	18mo	$105,000	$107	66
62 Willow Ln	0.17mi	2/1.0 (-1)	924 (-3%)	20mo	$145,900	$158	64
18 Ash Ln	0.09mi	2/1.0 (-1)	840 (-12%)	7mo	$180,000	$214	63
39 Cedar Ln	0.05mi	2/1.0 (-1)	840 (-12%)	20mo	$165,000	$196	55
1 Deerwood Ln	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,080 (+14%)	22mo	$170,000	$157	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.93×
• Total profit: $92,051
• Equity at exit: $153,149

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.72×
• Total profit: $272,202
• Equity at exit: $330,271

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 20 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Massachusetts: 20 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Cambridge / Boston historically rent-controlled (preempted 1994 but consideration ongoing); strong tenant protections; court backlogs.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 01081

• Home prices YoY: 9.0%
• Active inventory: 10
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,936 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$212 /mo · $2,550/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$367
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$407
• Net cashflow: $-12

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,952

Max offer price $168,205

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $105	-5% $46	+0% $-12	+5% $-71	+10% $-130
Rent	-10% $-165	-5% $-89	+0% $-12	+5% $64	+10% $141
Rate	-1.0pp $73	-0.5pp $31	base $-12	+0.5pp $-56	+1.0pp $-101

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $367 · $4,404/yr
• Likely covers: watersewertrash

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $169,999 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,999 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,999 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,999 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,999 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $169,999 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   remarks 699-char remark
8. 2026-06-12
   listed $169,999 New 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,232
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$2,550
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,859
• − Management: −$1,859
• − HOA: −$4,404
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable loss: −$2,757
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$662
• After-tax cash flow: $513/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wales
• NCES district ID: 2511940
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -20.00%
• Median HH income: $55,550
• Composite: 41.39/100
• National rank: #7325
• State rank: #283 of 371 in MA

Livability — Wales

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,704

Population outlook (Hampden County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 485,646 people
• By 2030: 491,517 · +1.2%
• By 2040: 500,539 · +3.1%
• By 2050: 508,827 · +4.8%
• By 2075: 539,167 · +11.0%
• By 2100: 545,698 · +12.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Lithuanian 16% Russian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hampden

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+8.9) · D 53.4% · R 44.5% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: 25.3pp · 2024: 8.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+8.9 2020: D+17.7 2016: D+16.0 2012: D+25.4 2008: D+25.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 24.64%
• Current HPI: 297.2095
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.28%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	3	$17B
▸Insurance	2	$84B
▸Retail	2	$76B
▸Life Sciences	1	$43B
▸Energy Technology	1	$31B
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$18B

Price history

+209.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $169,999 MLS PIN
• 2024-05-30 Sold (MLS) $150,000 MLS PIN
• 2024-05-09 Pending — MLS PIN
• 2024-04-25 Contingent — MLS PIN
• 2024-04-19 Listed $149,900 MLS PIN
• 2018-04-25 Sold (MLS) $52,500 MLS PIN
• 2018-01-17 Listed $54,900 MLS PIN