5931 Mayflower Way

Ave Maria, FL 34142

$330,000C-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,589 sqft · Built 2022 · SingleFamily · Active · 171 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,162/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,731
• Tax + insurance: −$491
• HOA: −$461
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$664
• Net cashflow: $-185/mo
• Annual: $-2,214/yr
• Cap rate: 5.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.40%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 0.96%
• Cash to close: $92,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $330k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-185 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $297k (9.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $316k (4.2% below list).
• It's been on market 171 days — a 12% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $290k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.1%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Estates Elementary School (math 70% / reading 67%, grade B+, #409 of 2,144 statewide, top 20%, 862 students, 53% FRL); Corkscrew Middle School (math 68% / reading 59%, grade B+, #109 of 571 statewide, top 19%, 958 students, 43% FRL); Palmetto Ridge High School (math 43% / reading 51%, grade D-, #207 of 667 statewide, top 32%, 2,347 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 610 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 110d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.9% in Ave Maria — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,162/mo this rent would consume 61% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 171 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.